Willem II are tipped to win, with a 42 % chance of a home victory, a 29 % chance of a draw and a 29 % chance of an away win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with a 27 % probability that the total will be exactly two. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9 % chance. Willem II have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.0 goals at home against similar opposition, while FC Volendam have scored 1.12 and conceded 1.25 on the road. The suggested picks are: Under 5.5 cards90.8 %, Under 4.5 cards80.2 %, Over 19.5 fouls79.3 %, Under 3.575.9 % (hit), Over 8.5 corners75.8 %, and Over 1.572.4 % (hit). The recent form shows Willem II struggling after two straight defeats, while Volendam are coming off a loss.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Willem II failed to deliver a win, with FC Volendam snatching a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win with a 42 % probability, but that call was wrong. The match’s final score of 1-2 gave the away side the actual result, a triumph that extended their recent form after a defeat. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.9 % probability, and its pick for Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 72.4 %. The most likely total of two goals came in 27 % of the model’s scenarios, yet the game saw three goals in total. Willem II’s home form had been shaky, while Volendam’s away form had been uneven, setting the stage for this unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Willem II win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam win✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.38
1.00
1.86
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.59
0.89
1.40
1.00
1.83
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.43
1.21
0.75
1.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.85
1.40
1.20
0.38
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.24
1.44
1.22
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
0-1
7.9%
1-2 ✓
7.0%
0-2
5.1%
Willem II goals ↓
FC Volendam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.9%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Willem II goals (down), columns = FC Volendam goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Willem II is 0.34 points better than FC Volendam in terms of average points per game (1.84 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
Jong Ajax
1.32
VVV Venlo
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Willem II is 0.02 goals better than FC Volendam in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Willem II is 0.45 goals better than FC Volendam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Willem II
For 5.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Volendam
For 4.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.6
11.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
22.6
23.8
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.7
10.5
10.9
2.8
2.8
3.0
22.6
23.9
21.1
vs Weaker (4)
11.2
11.5
11.0
2.5
4.0
1.0
22.5
23.5
21.5
% over line
61%
58%
64%
34%
35%
33%
57%
71%
41%
% under line
39%
42%
36%
66%
65%
67%
43%
29%
59%
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.5
11.2
3.1
4.0
2.2
22.4
23.4
21.5
vs Stronger (15)
9.6
9.3
9.9
2.8
4.3
1.5
19.5
21.7
17.5
vs Similar (33)
10.5
9.6
11.4
3.3
3.9
2.7
23.5
24.1
22.9
vs Weaker (2)
15.0
-
15.0
1.5
-
1.5
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
62%
50%
73%
36%
58%
15%
60%
71%
50%
% under line
38%
50%
27%
64%
42%
85%
40%
29%
50%
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.8
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
Emmen
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.5
Waalwijk
10.5
MVV
10.4
FC Volendam
10.4
ADO Den Haag
10.3
Roda
10.3
Vitesse
10.0
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Cambuur
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Dordrecht
4.2
Cambuur
4.0
Emmen
3.8
Jong Ajax
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Jong AZ
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.3
De Graafschap
3.2
Willem II
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.2
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong Utrecht
3.1
Almere City FC
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.3
ADO Den Haag
27.1
Vitesse
27.1
Cambuur
27.0
Jong Utrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.7
Dordrecht
25.6
Roda
24.7
Jong Ajax
24.6
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.2
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.7
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.4
Willem II
22.3
Almere City FC
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.8%
Under 9.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.1%
Under 21.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.56
0.38
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.41
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.43
0.50
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.77
0.60
0.00
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.82
0.33
0.78
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.81
0.62
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.48
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
1.00
0.71
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
1.20
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.41
1.11
0.44
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (32)
€14m
WI (26)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
ADH (25)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
Willem II and FC Volendam have a similar squad value (both €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WI (12)
€9m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
ADH (12)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
CAM (10)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
Willem II's attack is €5m more valuable than FC Volendam's (€9m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (7)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
WI (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
Willem II's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (13)
€7m
CAM (11)
€6m
DOR (14)
€6m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
Willem II's defence is €4m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€4m vs €7m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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ADO Den Haag
Cambuur
Almere City FC
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
Roda
Vitesse
Jong PSV U21
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC Eindhoven
Jong Utrecht
VVV Venlo
Emmen
FC OSS
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
MVV
Jong Ajax