Defensive solidity will be the headline of this Premier League encounter, with Wolves conceding 1.5 goals per game at home against similar opposition and Everton giving up 1.4 away. The model favours a Wolves victory, assigning a 37% chance to a home win, a 32% chance to a draw and a 31% chance to an Everton win. The average goal output is modest, 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals (28% probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance.
Wolves have scored 1.25 and conceded 1.5 at home, while Everton have netted 1.1 and yielded 1.4 on the road. The suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards (83.6%), Under 3.5 goals (82.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (75.4%) and Under 25.5 fouls (71.8% miss). Wolves are coming off a defeat, Everton a draw, both teams having mixed recent form. The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair, with Wolves the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The Wolves’ home form, now a win-win-win-draw-defeat streak, was still fragile after a 2-4 loss to West Ham, while Everton’s away run of D-W-W-L-L followed a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth. The pre-match favourite, a home win at 37 percent, failed to materialise; the match finished 1-1, a draw. The model’s call was wrong. Its other selections all settled: Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.6 percent, Under 3.5 goals hit at 82.8 percent, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 75.4 percent, but Under 25.5 fouls missed at 71.8 percent. The game delivered a tidy 1-1 draw, leaving the model’s predictions largely unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wolves winâś— Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.13
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.45
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Everton winâś— Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.33
Edge
-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
1.07
1.20
0.73
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.46
0.86
0.86
0.33
2.17
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.67
0.93
1.67
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.00
0.50
1.75
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.52
1.09
1.64
1.10
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.8%
Under 1.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.6%
@ 1.96-12.4%
Under 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.88+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 âś“
14.8%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
11.8%
0-1
10.5%
2-1
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
6.1%
Wolves goals ↓
Everton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.4%
7.6%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wolves goals (down), columns = Everton goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.34
Arsenal
2.21
Manchester United
1.97
Newcastle
1.87
Liverpool
1.76
Brighton
1.63
Aston Villa
1.61
Tottenham
1.58
Brentford
1.55
Fulham
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.18
Chelsea
1.16
Wolves
1.08
West Ham
1.05
Bournemouth
1.03
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Everton
0.95
Leicester
0.89
Leeds
0.82
Southampton
0.66
Wolves is 0.13 points better than Everton in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.47
Arsenal
2.32
Liverpool
1.97
Brighton
1.89
Tottenham
1.84
Newcastle
1.79
Brentford
1.53
Manchester United
1.53
Fulham
1.45
Leicester
1.34
Aston Villa
1.34
Leeds
1.26
West Ham
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.05
Chelsea
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Bournemouth
0.97
Southampton
0.95
Everton
0.89
Wolves
0.82
Wolves is 0.08 goals worse than Everton in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.87
Manchester City
0.87
Arsenal
1.13
Manchester United
1.13
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.21
Liverpool
1.24
Chelsea
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.29
Fulham
1.39
Brighton
1.39
West Ham
1.45
Everton
1.50
Wolves
1.53
Tottenham
1.66
Leicester
1.79
Nottingham Forest
1.79
Bournemouth
1.87
Southampton
1.92
Leeds
2.05
Wolves is 0.03 goals worse than Everton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.50).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.46
0.57
0.29
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.82
0.50
0.62
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.62
0.45
0.45
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wolves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.73
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.00
0.29
0.57
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.88
0.75
0.88
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.90
0.64
1.18
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wolves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
LEI (22)
€69m
Wolves's squad is €186m less valuable than Everton's (€273m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
LEI (7)
€20m
Wolves's attack is €95m less valuable than Everton's (€79m vs €174m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
LEI (4)
€13m
Wolves's midfield is €83m less valuable than Everton's (€79m vs €162m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
LEI (11)
€36m
Wolves's defence is €7m less valuable than Everton's (€116m vs €123m).
England: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →