This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.70
1.53
0.60
1.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.78
1.60
0.60
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.71
0.67
1.50
0.60
1.91
0.73
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.33-0.0%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.58+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.5%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.8%
Wrexham goals ↓
Birmingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.1%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.3%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wrexham goals (down), columns = Birmingham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Birmingham
2.41
Wrexham
2.00
Stockport
1.89
Charlton
1.85
Wycombe
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.70
Reading
1.63
Bolton
1.48
Blackpool
1.46
Huddersfield
1.39
Lincoln
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Rotherham
1.28
Stevenage
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Exeter
1.22
Mansfield
1.17
Northampton
1.11
Peterboro
1.11
Burton
1.02
Crawley Town
1.00
Bristol Rvs
0.93
Cambridge
0.83
Shrewsbury
0.72
Wrexham is 0.41 points worse than Birmingham in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birmingham
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.57
Blackpool
1.57
Stockport
1.57
Wycombe
1.52
Barnsley
1.50
Reading
1.48
Peterboro
1.48
Bolton
1.46
Charlton
1.46
Wrexham
1.46
Lincoln
1.39
Mansfield
1.30
Huddersfield
1.26
Crawley Town
1.24
Rotherham
1.17
Exeter
1.07
Burton
1.07
Northampton
1.04
Cambridge
0.98
Bristol Rvs
0.96
Stevenage
0.91
Shrewsbury
0.89
Wigan
0.87
Wrexham is 0.37 goals worse than Birmingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Birmingham
0.67
Wrexham
0.74
Wigan
0.91
Stockport
0.91
Charlton
0.93
Wycombe
0.98
Leyton Orient
1.04
Stevenage
1.09
Huddersfield
1.20
Lincoln
1.22
Reading
1.24
Rotherham
1.28
Blackpool
1.30
Exeter
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Burton
1.43
Bolton
1.52
Cambridge
1.59
Barnsley
1.59
Mansfield
1.59
Bristol Rvs
1.65
Shrewsbury
1.72
Peterboro
1.76
Crawley Town
1.80
Wrexham is 0.07 goals worse than Birmingham in terms of goals conceded per game (0.74 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Birmingham
67%
Bolton
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Huddersfield
54%
Peterboro
54%
Stockport
53%
Leyton Orient
52%
Reading
52%
Barnsley
51%
Exeter
51%
Wycombe
50%
Blackpool
50%
Charlton
50%
Mansfield
49%
Wigan
48%
Stevenage
47%
Wrexham
47%
Rotherham
47%
Lincoln
45%
Northampton
43%
Cambridge
43%
Burton
42%
Shrewsbury
42%
Wrexham is 19.6 percentage points worse than Birmingham in terms of average possession (47% vs 67%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wrexham
For 5.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Birmingham
For 5.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wrexham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
3.7
3.3
4.1
21.4
21.2
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
6.0
-
6.0
3.5
-
3.5
24.0
-
24.0
vs Weaker (48)
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.7
3.3
4.2
21.3
21.2
21.5
% over line
54%
56%
52%
50%
44%
56%
50%
48%
52%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
50%
56%
44%
50%
52%
48%
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.4
10.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
24.2
23.4
25.0
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
10.0
10.5
4.7
8.0
3.0
27.0
32.0
24.5
vs Similar (24)
9.9
9.3
10.5
3.8
4.2
3.5
23.2
23.2
23.2
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
9.4
10.0
3.4
2.9
3.8
25.0
22.8
26.8
% over line
49%
41%
57%
56%
54%
58%
73%
64%
83%
% under line
51%
59%
43%
44%
46%
42%
27%
36%
17%
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.5
Huddersfield
11.3
Crawley Town
11.0
Exeter
10.9
Mansfield
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Peterboro
10.4
Bristol Rvs
10.2
Reading
10.2
Wycombe
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Charlton
10.0
Lincoln
10.0
Rotherham
10.0
Stevenage
9.8
Blackpool
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Birmingham
9.6
Shrewsbury
9.6
Burton
9.3
Northampton
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Wigan
8.7
Stockport
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
4.8
Wigan
4.7
Stevenage
4.7
Lincoln
4.6
Exeter
4.3
Cambridge
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Blackpool
4.2
Shrewsbury
4.2
Charlton
4.1
Bristol Rvs
4.1
Stockport
4.1
Birmingham
4.0
Burton
4.0
Barnsley
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Huddersfield
3.9
Wrexham
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Northampton
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.6
Reading
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.6
Wigan
25.3
Stockport
25.0
Bolton
24.6
Lincoln
24.5
Birmingham
24.2
Blackpool
24.0
Wycombe
23.7
Cambridge
23.5
Exeter
23.5
Rotherham
23.2
Shrewsbury
23.1
Huddersfield
22.8
Reading
22.8
Bristol Rvs
22.7
Charlton
22.7
Burton
22.2
Mansfield
22.2
Crawley Town
21.9
Northampton
21.4
Wrexham
21.2
Peterboro
21.2
Leyton Orient
20.9
Barnsley
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.5%
Under 9.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.9%
Under 21.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.79
0.39
0.93
0.27
0.62
0.54
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.73
0.40
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
0.80
0.60
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.33
0.70
0.30
1.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
1.07
0.33
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (28)
0.71
0.29
1.07
0.33
0.31
0.23
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.33
0.80
0.30
0.73
0.36
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wrexham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore25%
Daniel Imray25%
Callum Doyle25%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominic Hyam50%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Kieffer Moore25%
Ben Whiteman25%
Sam Smith25%
Lewis O'Brien25%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Callum Doyle25%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis O'Brien25%
Daniel Imray25%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore50%
Sam Smith25%
Daniel Imray25%
Callum Doyle25%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Birmingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Willum Thor Willumsson33%
Ethan Laird25%
Seung-Ho Paik0%
Keshi Anderson0%
Lukas Jutkiewicz0%
Krystian Bielik0%
Alfie May0%
Ryan Allsop0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Christoph Klarer0%
Marc Leonard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keshi Anderson75%
Willum Thor Willumsson33%
Ryan Allsop33%
Alfie May25%
Alex Cochrane25%
Ethan Laird25%
Christoph Klarer25%
Seung-Ho Paik0%
Lukas Jutkiewicz0%
Krystian Bielik0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Marc Leonard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Keshi Anderson50%
Seung-Ho Paik33%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Lukas Jutkiewicz0%
Krystian Bielik0%
Alfie May0%
Ryan Allsop0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
Christoph Klarer0%
Marc Leonard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lukas Jutkiewicz33%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Seung-Ho Paik0%
Keshi Anderson0%
Krystian Bielik0%
Alfie May0%
Ryan Allsop0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
Christoph Klarer0%
Marc Leonard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (26)
€93m
WRE (32)
€77m
CHA (29)
€31m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
Wrexham's squad is €16m less valuable than Birmingham's (€77m vs €93m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (9)
€46m
CHA (13)
€18m
WRE (9)
€15m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
Wrexham's attack is €31m less valuable than Birmingham's (€15m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
BIR (5)
€12m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
Wrexham's midfield is €10m more valuable than Birmingham's (€23m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BIR (12)
€35m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
Wrexham's defence is €5m more valuable than Birmingham's (€39m vs €35m).
England: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Stockport
Charlton
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Reading
Bolton
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Barnsley
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wigan
Exeter
Mansfield
Peterboro
Northampton
Burton
Crawley Town
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge
Shrewsbury