This match between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Sturm Graz coming off a convincing win away to TSV Hartberg. The model predicts an away win for Sturm Graz, with a 52% probability, making it the favourite to take the three points. The draw percentage stands at 24%, while WSG Wattens has a 23% chance of securing a home win. The expected total goals is 3.1, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% probability.
WSG Wattens has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.4 goals per match against stronger opponents. Sturm Graz, on the other hand, has been impressive away from home, scoring 2.14 goals and conceding 1.43 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 83.1% probability, and is expected to hit. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and Double Chance Away, each with a high probability.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, Sturm Graz held WSG Wattens to a 1-1 draw, spoiling the pre-match favourite's chances. The win extends WSG Wattens' recent form, having come off a defeat, but it was not enough to secure all three points. The model's selection, Sturm Graz, was the pre-match favourite with a 52% chance of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its call was incorrect. The model had suggested Sturm Graz to win outright, which it missed. However, it did hit on the suggestion of Over 1.5 goals, which had an 83.1% probability of occurring.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
WSG Wattens winâ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.69
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Drawâ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.62
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.83
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Sturm Graz winâ Miss
52.4%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.90
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
â― 2. Goal Analysis
WSG Wattens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.38
1.46
1.18
1.82
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
1.54
1.60
1.40
1.00
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.88
1.25
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.13
1.00
0.80
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.18
1.00
0.88
1.78
1.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.91
1.17
0.67
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.22+6.6%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 3.94-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.11
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.73+6.4%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.05-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Under
SBO
2.13
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 2.78+5.0%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.39-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
@ 1.63+4.5%
No
38.8%
@ 2.13-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
No
1xBet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
11.2%@ 6.65+4.4%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.81+4.0%
0-2
7.9%@ 9.34+3.1%
0-1
7.3%@ 7.84+1.5%
2-1
6.2%@ 11.48+2.3%
1-3
6.2%@ 13.12+2.8%
2-2
6.0%@ 12.42+2.3%
0-0
5.4%@ 11.53+1.5%
WSG Wattens goals ↓
Sturm Graz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
7.3%
7.9%
5.1%
2.4%
1
4.3%
11%
9.7%
6.2%
3.0%
2
3.3%
6.2%
6.0%
3.8%
1.8%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = WSG Wattens goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
SCR Altach
1.31
TSV Hartberg
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Austria Lustenau
1.16
Grazer AK
1.16
WSG Wattens is 0.50 points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
Austria Lustenau
1.15
SCR Altach
1.12
WSG Wattens is 0.34 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.59).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
Austria Vienna
1.56
Austria Lustenau
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.62
WSG Wattens is 0.53 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.09).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
WSG Wattens is 9.6 percentage points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average possession (44% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
WSG Wattens
For 3.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
For 5.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
WSG Wattens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.0
9.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
22.6
21.2
24.0
vs Stronger (20)
11.2
12.2
10.1
3.5
3.0
4.0
21.1
19.7
22.7
vs Similar (29)
9.0
8.4
9.6
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.7
22.4
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
57%
43%
58%
57%
59%
57%
48%
65%
% under line
50%
43%
57%
42%
43%
41%
43%
52%
35%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.6
4.2
4.6
3.9
23.8
24.9
22.8
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
11.0
9.0
4.2
5.5
3.0
31.2
34.0
28.5
vs Similar (27)
9.4
8.8
10.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
23.8
24.2
23.4
vs Weaker (19)
9.6
10.4
8.9
3.7
4.4
3.2
21.8
23.7
19.9
% over line
51%
55%
48%
54%
55%
54%
69%
73%
65%
% under line
49%
45%
52%
46%
45%
46%
31%
27%
35%
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.4
Lask Linz
10.3
Rapid Vienna
9.9
WSG Wattens
9.8
Sturm Graz
9.6
Wolfsberger AC
9.5
TSV Hartberg
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Red Bull Salzburg
9.1
Grazer AK
8.9
Ried
8.5
SCR Altach
8.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.4
Austria Lustenau
5.0
Sturm Graz
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.8
Grazer AK
4.8
Ried
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
WSG Wattens
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.5
Rapid Vienna
4.3
Lask Linz
3.9
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.9
SCR Altach
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.6
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Austria Vienna
22.6
Ried
22.6
WSG Wattens
22.4
TSV Hartberg
22.1
Lask Linz
20.6
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.5%
@ 1.78-4.6%
Under 9.5
52.5%
@ 1.94+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.1%
Under 21.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
WSG Wattens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.85
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
0.85
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.88
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.88
0.75
0.88
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.37
0.33
0.20
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.25
0.38
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.09
0.50
0.00
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
WSG Wattens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
WSG Wattens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.77
0.62
0.82
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
0.69
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.67
0.60
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.65
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.82
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
WSG Wattens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+6.6%
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
1.35
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.29
+7.4%
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Lustenau
Wolfsberger AC
Ried
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna
TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK