Wycombe are heavily favoured to win at home against Rotherham, with recent form playing a significant role in this storyline. Coming off a win against Rotherham, Wycombe are looking to build on that momentum, having scored 3 goals in the process. Meanwhile, Rotherham are coming off a defeat against Wycombe, conceding 3 goals in the previous encounter.
The model predicts a 57% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and an 18% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 11.9% probability.
At home, Wycombe have been scoring an average of 2.5 goals, while conceding none. Away from home, Rotherham have been scoring 0.56 goals, but conceding 1.67 goals to stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting with a 77.4% probability. Additionally, the model suggests Over 1.5 goals (77.4%), Home win (57%), and Draw (25%) as its selections.
The win extends Wycombe's run, their second in a row after coming off a win. The final score was 3-2 in favour of the home side, resulting in a home win. The model correctly predicted the home win, its pre-match probability of 57% proving accurate. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite. The model's call was correct. The Over 1.5 selection, with a 77.4% probability, hit, while the most likely score, 2-0, with a 25% probability, did not materialise.
Wycombe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.86 | 0.93 | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.44 | 1.64 | 1.75 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 2.15 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.60 | 0.40 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Rotherham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.67 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 0.67 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.86 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 1.61 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 0.58 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Rotherham goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Wycombe
Rotherham
Wycombe| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | 17.0 | 17.0 | - |
| vs Similar (42) | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 9.1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 20.6 | 18.7 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 42% | 35% | 48% |
| % under line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 58% | 65% | 52% |
Rotherham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 24.0 | 23.8 | 24.1 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 22.9 | 22.2 | 23.8 |
| vs Similar (41) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 51% | 54% | 48% | 64% | 68% | 60% | 67% | 62% | 72% |
| % under line | 49% | 46% | 52% | 36% | 32% | 40% | 33% | 38% | 28% |
Wycombe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Rotherham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.26 | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Wycombe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 1.04 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.77 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Rotherham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.39 | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.82 | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 24/08/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/03/22 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/10/21 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/21 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/09/20 | H | 0-1 |
Wycombe| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 3-2 |
Rotherham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 | Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 | Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 49% | 22.4 | 57% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.4 | 51% | 21.2 | 45% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 | Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.4 | 67% | 25.2 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 | Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.7 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 24.5 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 | Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 | Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 | Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 | Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 | Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 | Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 | Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 | Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 | Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 | Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 | Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 | Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 | Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 | Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 | Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |