Yantra 2019 are favoured to win this home fixture against Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, with a 48% chance of victory, a 30% probability of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away win. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.8% probability. Yantra’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, averaging 3.0 goals scored and conceding none, while Lokomotiv’s away form against stronger opponents yields 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.7% probability that the total goals will be under 3.5. The model also offers a 48% chance of a home win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away win. The final score of 2-2 confirmed a draw, but the predicted favoured outcome remained the home win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Yantra 2019, failed to secure the win the model had predicted, with a 48% probability of triumph. The match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.7% chance, missed as the combined tally reached four. Yantra, coming off a draw, had been in a mixed run, while Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, after a defeat, struggled away. The final score of 2-2 matched the expected total of 2.3 goals, but the outcome was a surprise, proving the model’s predictions were off target.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.73
1.93
0.73
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.52
0.72
1.86
0.79
1.09
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
3.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.40
0.80
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
1.60
1.30
1.83
1.17
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
1.11
0.56
0.64
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.8%
Yantra 2019 goals ↓
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.7%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
2
10%
8.8%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.8%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yantra 2019 goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunav Ruse
2.16
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Marek
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
0.94
Belasitsa
0.59
Yantra 2019 is 0.97 points better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Dunav Ruse
1.66
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Sevlievo
0.91
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Belasitsa
0.81
Yantra 2019 is 0.38 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
FK Minyor Pernik
1.41
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Sevlievo
1.62
Belasitsa
1.94
Yantra 2019 is 0.88 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.27
1.00
0.27
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.28
1.00
0.29
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.33
0.47
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.25
0.33
0.22
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.44
0.86
0.50
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
1.07
0.33
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.55
0.78
0.33
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Yantra 2019's squad is €2m more valuable than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →