Yantra 2019’s defensive record at home shows they concede 1.5 goals on average, while their opponents in similar strength matches average 1.67 goals scored, suggesting a tight encounter. The model favours a home win, with a 39% probability, followed by a 32% chance of a draw and 29% for an away win. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome with a 28% share. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability. Yantra’s home form indicates they will score around 1.67 goals and allow 1.5, whereas Marek, playing away, averages 0.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 82.3% probability. All figures are presented once and only once.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Yantra 2019’s home advantage not enough to secure the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a Home win with a 39% probability, but the match finished 1-2 in favour of Marek, so that call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result of an Away win. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, proved correct, hitting with an 82.3% probability. Yantra’s recent form, a draw after a string of defeats, and Marek’s draw-heavy run, left both sides vulnerable. The game ended with a 1-2 scoreline, confirming the model’s prediction for the total goals was off, yet its under-goals pick hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marek win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.07
1.53
1.27
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.24
1.67
1.50
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
1.47
0.53
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.89
1.57
0.57
0.64
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.5%
Under 1.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.6%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-2 ✓
6.6%
0-2
5.5%
Yantra 2019 goals ↓
Marek goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.8%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.1%
8.0%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yantra 2019 goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Yantra 2019 is 0.41 points worse than Marek in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Yantra 2019 is 0.09 goals better than Marek in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Yantra 2019 is 0.32 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.80
0.40
0.13
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.36
0.83
0.42
0.08
0.31
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.20
0.40
0.07
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.21
0.43
0.07
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
90% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.88
0.83
1.08
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
1.07
0.47
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.68
1.14
0.50
0.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Yantra 2019's squad is €1m more valuable than Marek's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →