Yantra 2019’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.18 goals per game, while Marek, on the road, has a tighter back line, allowing only 0.85 goals against similar opposition. The model projects a tight affair, with an average of just 2.1 goals and a 28% chance of the 2-goal total. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability, and the model’s pick is an away win. Home win odds sit at 28%, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 40%. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.2% chance of success. Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, hinting at cautious play. The prediction favours a low-scoring draw or a narrow away victory.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock to the pre-match favourite, Marek, who had been tipped to win with a 40% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Yantra 2019, fresh from a draw, managed to hold the visitors to a single goal, while Marek, also coming off a draw, could not convert its 1.08 average scoring rate into a win. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark, with an 84.2% probability, reflecting the low-scoring nature of the game. The final result confirmed the model’s prediction of a draw, but not the expected winner.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marek win✗ Miss
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.03
0.87
1.20
1.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.08
1.00
1.18
1.46
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
0.50
1.25
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.87
1.57
0.71
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
-
-
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (27)
1.33
0.78
1.57
0.71
1.08
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.9%
Under 1.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-0
13.8%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
10.2%
0-2
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.3%
Yantra 2019 goals ↓
Marek goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.3%
3.2%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
5.3%
6.2%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yantra 2019 goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dobrudzha
2.16
Montana
2.05
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.89
Marek
1.71
Dunav Ruse
1.68
Yantra 2019
1.68
Belasitsa
1.47
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.37
Spartak Pleven
1.34
Ludogorets II
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.29
Fratria
1.26
FK Minyor Pernik
1.08
Sportist Svoge
0.97
Litex
0.87
Botev Plovdiv II
0.76
Strumska Slava
0.74
Nesebar
0.74
Yantra 2019 is 0.03 points worse than Marek in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dobrudzha
1.95
Yantra 2019
1.55
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.45
Montana
1.39
Ludogorets II
1.39
Dunav Ruse
1.37
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.24
Fratria
1.18
Marek
1.16
Belasitsa
1.11
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
FK Minyor Pernik
0.95
Spartak Pleven
0.92
Botev Plovdiv II
0.87
Nesebar
0.74
Strumska Slava
0.61
Sportist Svoge
0.58
Litex
0.50
Yantra 2019 is 0.39 goals better than Marek in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montana
0.39
Dobrudzha
0.68
Marek
0.82
Dunav Ruse
0.92
Yantra 2019
0.97
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.05
Sportist Svoge
1.05
CSKA Sofia II
1.08
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.08
Ludogorets II
1.11
Spartak Pleven
1.13
Belasitsa
1.18
Litex
1.18
Fratria
1.32
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.37
Strumska Slava
1.42
FK Minyor Pernik
1.47
Nesebar
1.66
Botev Plovdiv II
1.84
Yantra 2019 is 0.16 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.46
0.64
0.64
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.64
0.29
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
-
-
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.26
0.64
0.29
0.38
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.27
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.62
0.36
0.55
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.75
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
-
-
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.52
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
EVT (23)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Yantra 2019's squad is €1m more valuable than Marek's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Yantra 2019 and Marek have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →