Yantra 2019 are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 67% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw and 11% for a victory by Nesebar. The 2-0 scoreline is the most likely result, with a 13.1% probability, while the expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair. Yantra’s home form shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Nesebar’s away record is 0.44 scored and 1.56 conceded. The single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.3% probability. Both sides have recently drawn 1-1, but Yantra’s stronger home attack and defensive solidity give them the edge. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains a home win, reinforced by the venue advantage and the opponent’s weaker away performance.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Yantra 2019, failed to deliver as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given the home side a 67% chance of winning, but the result was a stalemate. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.3% probability, also missed, as no goal was scored. Yantra had been coming off a draw and had a recent run of DWWWL, while Nesebar mirrored that form. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals only 25% of the time, underscoring the unpredictability of this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
67.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.93
1.47
0.93
1.73
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
0.87
1.50
0.83
1.55
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.14
1.33
1.33
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.90
0.93
1.93
0.50
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.00
1.40
1.60
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.83
0.67
2.11
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.1%
1-0
11.9%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.9%
0-0 ✓
7.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.5%
Yantra 2019 goals ↓
Nesebar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.6%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
3
8.9%
6.5%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.5%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yantra 2019 goals (down), columns = Nesebar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dobrudzha
2.16
Montana
2.05
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.89
Marek
1.71
Dunav Ruse
1.68
Yantra 2019
1.68
Belasitsa
1.47
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.37
Spartak Pleven
1.34
Ludogorets II
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.29
Fratria
1.26
FK Minyor Pernik
1.08
Sportist Svoge
0.97
Litex
0.87
Botev Plovdiv II
0.76
Strumska Slava
0.74
Nesebar
0.74
Yantra 2019 is 0.95 points better than Nesebar in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 0.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dobrudzha
1.95
Yantra 2019
1.55
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.45
Montana
1.39
Ludogorets II
1.39
Dunav Ruse
1.37
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.24
Fratria
1.18
Marek
1.16
Belasitsa
1.11
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
FK Minyor Pernik
0.95
Spartak Pleven
0.92
Botev Plovdiv II
0.87
Nesebar
0.74
Strumska Slava
0.61
Sportist Svoge
0.58
Litex
0.50
Yantra 2019 is 0.82 goals better than Nesebar in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montana
0.39
Dobrudzha
0.68
Marek
0.82
Dunav Ruse
0.92
Yantra 2019
0.97
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.05
Sportist Svoge
1.05
CSKA Sofia II
1.08
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.08
Ludogorets II
1.11
Spartak Pleven
1.13
Belasitsa
1.18
Litex
1.18
Fratria
1.32
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.37
Strumska Slava
1.42
FK Minyor Pernik
1.47
Nesebar
1.66
Botev Plovdiv II
1.84
Yantra 2019 is 0.68 goals better than Nesebar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.35
1.08
0.42
1.00
0.27
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.29
0.86
0.12
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.83
0.40
0.80
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.17
0.83
0.22
0.89
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.52
0.42
0.42
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
0.67
1.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.07
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.17
1.00
0.80
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (18)
0.39
1.00
0.44
1.22
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →