The contest between Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. Home advantage is clear, yet the expected total of 2.3 goals and the most probable total of 2 (28%) suggest a modestly low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Yarud Mariupol' averages 1.25 goals for and 1.25 against at home against stronger opposition, while Inhulets, playing away against weaker teams, scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8 on average. The probabilities for the match result are 37% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 32% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 4.5 (91.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.4%). All figures are presented as percentages, reflecting the balanced nature of the upcoming match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yarud Mariupol' win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inhulets win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.19
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.91
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.57
1.43
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.47
1.25
1.88
0.64
1.18
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.82
2.00
0.83
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.9%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
6.0%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Inhulets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.2%
8.1%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Inhulets goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.20 points worse than Inhulets in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.20 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.20 goals better than Inhulets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yarud Mariupol' or Draw
67.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' or Inhulets
69.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Inhulets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inhulets
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Inhulets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yarud Mariupol', so a minus line means Yarud Mariupol' give that many goals of a start and Inhulets receive them. At -1, Yarud Mariupol' must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yarud Mariupol' win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.1%
Inhulets +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -1
16.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
Inhulets +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +1
67.8%
Draw +1
18.7%
Inhulets -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +2
86.5%
Draw +2
9.3%
Inhulets -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.45
0.55
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.57
0.71
0.31
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.58
0.50
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.27
0.67
0.50
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.55
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inhulets · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristian Svystun25%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets20%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Ivan Losenko11%
Roman Volokhatyi8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk40%
Maksym Melnychuk25%
Valerii Sad22%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov20%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko20%
Roman Volokhatyi17%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Vitalii Katrych14%
Serhiy Kyslenko12%
Ilya Gadzhuk12%
Ivan Losenko11%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleksandr Piatov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Valerii Sad0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s squad is €2m more valuable than Inhulets's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s midfield is €1m more valuable than Inhulets's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →