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Yarud Mariupol' vs Kolos Kovalivka II Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2026
Time: 09:00
Final 3-1
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
68%
23%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kolos Kovalivka II
Kolos Kovalivka II
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Yarud Mariupol' hosts Kolos Kovalivka II in the Ukraine: Persha Liga on August 16, 2026. The home side's recent form has been concerning, with three consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to SK Poltava. However, they have a strong chance of turning things around at home, where they are heavily favored to win, with a 68% probability.

The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome, and the expected total number of goals is 2.4. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 16.1%. Yarud Mariupol' have a strong home scoring record, averaging 1.5 goals per game, and Kolos Kovalivka II have struggled away from home, conceding 1.5 goals on average against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a 68% probability. The suggested picks include the Under 3.5 goal line, which has an 78% probability. Other selections include the Draw (23%), the Away win (9%), and the Under 3.5 goal line (78%). Yarud Mariupol' win percentage is 68%, the Draw percentage is 23%, and the Away win percentage is 9%.

Results analysis

Today's match between Yarud Mariupol' and Kolos Kovalivka II saw a thrilling 3-1 win extend their recent run of victories, coming off the back of a win. The model's selection, home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. However, it was a tough day for the model's picks, as several selections missed their mark.

The model's selection, home win, was correct, but the model's call for under 3.5 total goals was a miss, with a pre-match probability of 78.1%. The model's call for most likely scores of 1-0, 2-0, or 0-0 was also incorrect, with the actual score being 3-1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II win✗ Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D40W30W00D00D20W01L02L03LH·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.060.940.931.36
vs Stronger (8)0.881.751.251.250.502.25
vs Similar (22)1.050.911.000.831.101.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L12LA·POD08/06H·PRY26/07A·VIK02/08H·AHR08/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.251.001.000.001.50
vs Stronger (4)0.501.251.001.000.001.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.8%
No
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.1%
2-0
15.8%
0-0
10.1%
1-1
10.0%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-1 ✓
5.2%
4-0
4.5%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Kolos Kovalivka II goals →
01234
010%4.0%1.3%0.2%0.0%
116%10.0%2.4%0.4%0.1%
216%8.4%2.3%0.4%0.1%
39.8%5.2%1.4%0.2%0.0%
44.5%2.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Kolos Kovalivka II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.60 points better than Kolos Kovalivka II in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.60 goals better than Kolos Kovalivka II in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Yarud Mariupol' and Kolos Kovalivka II are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W00D00D00D20W00D01L02LH·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.570.440.560.210.57
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.250.750.000.50
vs Similar (22)0.410.550.500.500.300.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D01LA·POD08/06H·PRY26/07A·VIK02/08H·AHR08/08
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.000.250.000.500.000.00
vs Stronger (4)0.000.250.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D20W30W00D00D00D01L01L01LH·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.620.380.710.79
vs Stronger (8)0.751.121.000.500.501.75
vs Similar (22)0.640.360.500.330.800.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L11DA·POD08/06H·PRY26/07A·VIK02/08H·AHR08/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.001.000.500.001.50
vs Stronger (4)0.501.001.000.500.001.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s squad is €3m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka II's (€3m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s attack is €1m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka II's (€1m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s midfield is €1m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka II's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Kolos Kovalivka II have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
YM wins
0
Draws
0
KKI wins

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs Kolos Kovalivka II · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26HYM Vs SK Poltava0-3
31/07/26AAhrobiznes Volochysk Vs YM2-0
24/07/26HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-1
01/06/26HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka2-0
23/05/26APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs YM0-0
17/05/26HYM Vs Probiy Horodenka0-0
09/05/26ANyva Ternopil Vs YM0-3
01/05/26HYM Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk4-0
25/04/26AMetal Kharkiv Vs YM1-1
19/04/26HYM Vs Inhulets1-1

Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HKKI Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-2
02/08/26AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs KKI2-0
26/07/26HKKI Vs Prykarpattia1-0
08/06/25APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs KKI1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.12
HomeWDWLL1.29
AwayLDWDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.182.212.15
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %38%33%42%
Over 3.5 %12%12%12%
Scored0.961.120.81
Conceded1.221.081.35
BTTS36%33%38%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Kolos Kovalivka II
Kolos Kovalivka II
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLL0.75
HomeWL1.50
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals1.752.001.50
Over 1.5 %50%50%50%
Over 2.5 %25%50%0%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.501.000.00
Conceded1.251.001.50
BTTS25%50%0%
Clean Sheet25%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka515
100%
3.0
91+8
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.80.2
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava511
60%
2.2
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
3OleksandriaOleksandria511
60%
2.2
115+6
3.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3132.21.0
-
4KulykivKulykiv510
60%
2.0
116+5
3.4
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
5PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia57
40%
1.4
86+2
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.2
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv57
40%
1.4
66+0
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.21.2
-
7InhuletsInhulets57
40%
1.4
79-2
3.2
100%
100%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.8
-
8Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk57
40%
1.4
59-4
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.8
-
9UCSAUCSA56
20%
1.2
88+0
3.2
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.6
-
10Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil56
20%
1.2
55+0
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
11Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'56
40%
1.2
68-2
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
12ChernihivChernihiv54
0%
0.8
56-1
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
13Lokomotiv KyivLokomotiv Kyiv53
0%
0.6
47-3
2.2
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
14Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II53
20%
0.6
38-5
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
15Polissya IIPolissya II52
0%
0.4
69-3
3.0
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.8
-
16Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka52
0%
0.4
412-8
3.2
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.82.4
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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