The match between Yarud Mariupol' and Kulykiv is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home form has been uneven, yet the team is coming off a win and has averaged 1.5 goals scored and conceded against stronger opposition. Kulykiv, after a defeat, averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most probable total of two goals at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. Home win probability sits at 39 %, a draw at 31 %, and an away win also at 31 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (96.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 4.5 (91.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.3 %), and Home +2 handicap (87.3 %). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yarud Mariupol' win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.19
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.91
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kulykiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.20
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.20
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.7%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Kulykiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.2%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Kulykiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
SK Poltava
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Chernihiv
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.50
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.80 points worse than Kulykiv in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
UCSA
1.60
SK Poltava
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Inhulets
1.17
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.67
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.67
Yarud Mariupol' is 1.00 goals worse than Kulykiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.17
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.33
Inhulets
1.50
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.40 goals worse than Kulykiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yarud Mariupol' or Draw
69.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' or Kulykiv
69.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Kulykiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kulykiv
61.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Kulykiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yarud Mariupol', so a minus line means Yarud Mariupol' give that many goals of a start and Kulykiv receive them. At -1, Yarud Mariupol' must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yarud Mariupol' win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -2
6.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
Kulykiv +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -1
17.5%
Draw -1
21.0%
Kulykiv +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +1
69.1%
Draw +1
18.2%
Kulykiv -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +2
87.3%
Draw +2
8.8%
Kulykiv -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.45
0.55
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kulykiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.9%
Under 0.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.3%
Under 1.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
Under 2.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kulykiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.80
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.6%
Under 0.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.9%
Under 1.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →