Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil Result & Analysis

The encounter between Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil sits on a knife-edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home form shows a modest 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded against similar opposition, while the visitors have 1.08 for and 1.33 against on the road. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly active match, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 14.4% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 32% home win, 30% draw, and 37% away win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 78% chance of hitting and Over 1.5 at 70.3%. The home side’s recent five matches include a two-game winning streak, while the visitors are coming off a draw. Both teams have faced similar-strength opponents recently, with the last scores of 3-1 for Yarud Mariupol' and 1-1 for Nyva Ternopil. The model’s selection points to a tight contest, but the edge lies with the away side.

The match finished 0-1 in favour of Nyva Ternopil, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which was correct. The win extends Yarud Mariupol’s two-game winning streak, while Nyva return to the draw after a 1-1 stalemate with Metal Kharkiv. The model had assigned a 37% probability to the away triumph, and the final result matched that prediction. In the market for totals, the Under 3.5 selection hit with a 78% chance, whereas the Over 1.5, projected at 70.3%, missed. Overall, the model’s favourite and its key selections performed as expected.