Yarud Mariupol' look set to keep a tight, low-scoring game at home, with their recent 2-game winning streak suggesting a solid defensive display. The model favours a home win, giving Yarud a 41% chance, a draw 32%, and Nyva Ternopil a 26% chance. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. Yarud average 1.0 goal scored and 0.91 conceded against similar opponents, while Nyva averages 0.85 scored and 1.15 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 4.5 (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.8%), and Home +2 handicap (90.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yarud Mariupol' win
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil win
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.19
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.91
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.77
1.15
0.82
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.18
1.00
1.22
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.7%
Under 2.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.9%
Under 3.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.7%
1-0
13.5%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.0%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Nyva Ternopil goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.8%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.8%
7.9%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Nyva Ternopil goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil are level in average points per game (both 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.20 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.60 goals worse than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yarud Mariupol' or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
26%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' or Nyva Ternopil
67.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
26%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
58.6%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yarud Mariupol', so a minus line means Yarud Mariupol' give that many goals of a start and Nyva Ternopil receive them. At -1, Yarud Mariupol' must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yarud Mariupol' win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -2
6.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
Nyva Ternopil +2
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -1
18.5%
Draw -1
22.9%
Nyva Ternopil +1
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +1
73.7%
Draw +1
16.9%
Nyva Ternopil -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +2
90.6%
Draw +2
7.0%
Nyva Ternopil -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.45
0.55
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.54
0.31
0.18
0.35
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.32
0.78
0.22
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.23
0.85
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.86
0.22
1.00
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →