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Yarud Mariupol' vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 0-2
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
35%
31%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D03L30W01L10W01L12L03L00DH·KRE27/09A·MET03/10A·UCS14/10H·DIN20/10A·MET25/10A·VIK03/11A·KUD10/11H·SK 17/11A·KRE27/11A·PRY30/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.231.001.140.751.31
vs Stronger (8)0.751.120.500.751.001.50
vs Similar (22)0.911.271.201.300.671.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Podillya Khmelnytskyi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L11D01L02L11D12L12L21W11DA·EPI28/09H·MET09/10A·BUK13/10H·MIN19/10A·PRY27/10H·AHR03/11A·NYV16/11H·EPI23/11A·MET30/03H·VIK06/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.031.331.000.871.07
vs Stronger (4)0.750.750.001.001.500.50
vs Similar (26)1.151.081.541.000.771.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.9%
0-2 ✓
6.4%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Podillya Khmelnytskyi goals →
01234
012%10%6.4%2.4%0.7%
111%15%7.4%2.7%0.8%
26.9%7.7%4.3%1.6%0.4%
32.7%3.0%1.7%0.6%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Podillya Khmelnytskyi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chernihiv
3.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.43
SK Poltava
1.88
Kudrivka
1.71
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.67
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.50
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.50
Metal Kharkiv
1.41
Nyva Ternopil
1.40
UCSA
1.38
Bukovyna
1.36
Prykarpattia
1.33
Minai
1.17
Yarud Mariupol'
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.15
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.71
Kremin'
0.61
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Khust City
0.00
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.01 points better than Podillya Khmelnytskyi in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chernihiv
2.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.91
UCSA
1.62
SK Poltava
1.46
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.42
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.33
Prykarpattia
1.33
Khust City
1.33
Metal Kharkiv
1.32
Kudrivka
1.25
Nyva Ternopil
1.24
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Minai
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92
Bukovyna
0.91
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.86
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.79
Kremin'
0.65
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.12 goals better than Podillya Khmelnytskyi in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chernihiv
0.00
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.71
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.74
Kudrivka
0.79
SK Poltava
0.88
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.88
Bukovyna
0.91
Metal Kharkiv
0.95
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.08
Nyva Ternopil
1.16
Prykarpattia
1.17
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.18
Minai
1.30
UCSA
1.46
Yarud Mariupol'
1.46
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.54
Kremin'
1.78
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.92
Khust City
3.00
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.38 goals worse than Podillya Khmelnytskyi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L10W01L10W01L00D00D01L00DH·KUD16/09A·SK 22/09H·KRE27/09A·MET03/10H·DIN20/10A·MET25/10A·VIK03/11A·KUD10/11H·SK 17/11A·PRY30/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.530.670.330.47
vs Stronger (10)0.300.700.200.600.400.80
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.700.700.300.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Podillya Khmelnytskyi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L01L11D01L01L20W00DA·EPI28/09H·MET09/10A·BUK13/10H·MIN19/10A·PRY27/10H·AHR03/11A·NYV16/11H·EPI23/11A·MET30/03H·VIK06/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.330.600.400.400.27
vs Stronger (4)0.250.000.000.000.500.00
vs Similar (26)0.540.380.690.460.380.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L11D10W20W00D10W01L11D00DH·KUD16/09A·SK 22/09H·KRE27/09A·MET03/10H·DIN20/10A·MET25/10A·VIK03/11A·KUD10/11H·SK 17/11A·PRY30/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.400.530.530.53
vs Stronger (10)0.400.400.200.400.600.40
vs Similar (20)0.500.600.500.600.500.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Podillya Khmelnytskyi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L11D00D01L00D11D11D01L11DA·EPI28/09H·MET09/10A·BUK13/10H·MIN19/10A·PRY27/10H·AHR03/11A·NYV16/11H·EPI23/11A·MET30/03H·VIK06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.730.600.470.80
vs Stronger (4)0.500.750.001.001.000.50
vs Similar (26)0.620.690.850.540.380.85
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (26)
€28m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
KUD (24)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
KKI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€10m
BUK (10)
€4m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (6)
€7m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€11m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
YM wins
0
Draws
0
PK wins

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/25APrykarpattia Vs YM0-0
27/11/24AKremin' Vs YM3-0
17/11/24HYM Vs SK Poltava1-2
10/11/24AKudrivka Vs YM1-0
03/11/24AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs YM0-1
25/10/24AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs YM1-0
20/10/24HYM Vs Dinaz Vyshhorod3-0
14/10/24AUCSA Vs YM3-0
03/10/24AMetalist 1925 Kharkiv Vs YM1-1
27/09/24HYM Vs Kremin'2-1

Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/25HPK Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka1-1
30/03/25AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs PK1-2
23/11/24HPK Vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1-2
16/11/24ANyva Ternopil Vs PK2-1
03/11/24HPK Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-1
27/10/24APrykarpattia Vs PK2-0
19/10/24HPK Vs Minai0-1
13/10/24ABukovyna Vs PK1-1
09/10/24HPK Vs Metal Kharkiv0-3
28/09/24AEpitsentr Dunayivtsi Vs PK2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.20
HomeLDWWL1.12
AwayLWLLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%25%31%
AVG goals2.122.331.92
Over 1.5 %64%71%58%
Over 2.5 %38%46%31%
Over 3.5 %16%21%12%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.121.290.96
BTTS44%54%35%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWD1.20
HomeLLDLD1.57
AwayLDLLW0.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%43%9%
AVG goals2.132.172.09
Over 1.5 %71%65%77%
Over 2.5 %36%35%36%
Over 3.5 %13%17%9%
Scored1.091.260.91
Conceded1.040.911.18
BTTS56%43%68%
Clean Sheet24%30%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi2356
74%
2.4
4417+27
2.7
74%
48%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
1231.90.7
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava2445
54%
1.9
3521+14
2.3
67%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.9
-
3KudrivkaKudrivka2441
50%
1.7
3019+11
2.0
67%
29%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.20.8
-
4Metalist 1925 KharkivMetalist 1925 Kharkiv2440
46%
1.7
3421+13
2.3
75%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
28
107111.40.9
-
5Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka2436
38%
1.5
3217+15
2.0
62%
29%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.30.7
-
6Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2535
36%
1.4
3129+2
2.4
72%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.2
-
7UCSAUCSA2433
38%
1.4
3935+4
3.1
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.5
-
8Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk2233
45%
1.5
1926-7
2.0
59%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.91.2
-
9PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2432
33%
1.3
3228+4
2.5
67%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.2
-
10Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv2231
36%
1.4
2921+8
2.3
73%
41%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.31.0
-
11BukovynaBukovyna2230
36%
1.4
2020+0
1.8
64%
23%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4230.90.9
-
12Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2630
27%
1.2
2428-4
2.0
65%
31%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
13Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'2428
33%
1.2
2535-10
2.5
71%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.5
-
14MinaiMinai2327
30%
1.2
2330-7
2.3
70%
48%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
15Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya2626
23%
1.0
2440-16
2.5
77%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
16Dinaz VyshhorodDinaz Vyshhorod2417
12%
0.7
1946-27
2.7
79%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
17KreminKremin'2314
13%
0.6
1541-26
2.4
70%
52%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
18ChernihivChernihiv26
100%
3.0
50+5
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.50.0
-
19Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
20Khust CityKhust City30
0%
0.0
49-5
4.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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