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Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
34%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Polissya II
Polissya II
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Yarud Mariupol’ and Polissya II face a tightly contested match, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. Home side Yarud Mariupol’ averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opponents, while Polissya II, on the road, averages 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Home win probability sits at 34%, draw at 29%, and away win at 37%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Under 4.5 (88.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.9%), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.6%). Yarud Mariupol’ comes off a win, while Polissya II is coming off a draw, keeping the encounter evenly poised.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polissya II win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W30W00D00D20W01L02L03L31W31WH·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08H·KOL16/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.191.001.141.29
vs Stronger (7)1.001.711.251.250.672.33
vs Similar (21)1.050.951.000.911.101.00
vs Weaker (2)3.001.003.001.003.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polissya II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polissya IIPolissya II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D12L01L22D12LH·UCS25/07A·INH03/08H·MET09/08A·CHE15/08H·PRY29/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.801.001.671.502.00
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (4)1.251.751.001.672.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.1%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Polissya II goals →
01234
09.0%8.9%6.6%2.9%0.9%
18.4%14%8.3%3.6%1.2%
26.1%7.9%5.2%2.2%0.7%
32.5%3.3%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.8%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Polissya II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.80 points better than Polissya II in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II are level in goals scored per game (both 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.20 goals better than Polissya II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yarud Mariupol' or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' or Polissya II
70.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Yarud Mariupol' + Polissya II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Polissya II
66.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Polissya II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Yarud Mariupol', so a minus line means Yarud Mariupol' give that many goals of a start and Polissya II receive them. At -1, Yarud Mariupol' must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yarud Mariupol' win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -2
5.1%
Draw -2
10.1%
Polissya II +2
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' -1
15.2%
Draw -1
18.8%
Polissya II +1
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +1
63.2%
Draw +1
19.7%
Polissya II -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yarud Mariupol')
Yarud Mariupol' +2
83.0%
Draw +2
11.1%
Polissya II -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D20W00D01L02L10W01LH·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08H·KOL16/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.440.560.210.64
vs Stronger (7)0.140.710.250.750.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.380.570.450.550.300.60
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Polissya II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polissya IIPolissya II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D00D01L00DH·UCS25/07A·INH03/08H·MET09/08A·CHE15/08H·PRY29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.670.330.501.00
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.670.330.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W00D00D00D01L01L01L21W30WH·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05H·PRO17/05A·POD23/05H·VIK01/06H·VIK24/07A·AHR31/07H·SK 09/08H·KOL16/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.750.440.930.64
vs Stronger (7)0.861.001.000.500.671.67
vs Similar (21)0.670.380.550.360.800.40
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polissya II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polissya IIPolissya II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L21W12LH·UCS25/07A·INH03/08H·MET09/08A·CHE15/08H·PRY29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.200.331.331.001.00
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (4)0.751.250.331.332.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polissya II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.6%-------
Under 5.595.4%-------
Under 4.588.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals86.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.6%-------
Away +2 handicap84.8%-------
Home +2 handicap83.0%-------
Under 3.574.6%-------
Over 1.573.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals71.3%-------
Home or Away70.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s squad is €2m more valuable than Polissya II's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s midfield is €1m more valuable than Polissya II's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
YM wins
0
Draws
0
PI wins

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ALokomotiv Kyiv Vs YM1-3
16/08/26HYM Vs Kolos Kovalivka II3-1
09/08/26HYM Vs SK Poltava0-3
31/07/26AAhrobiznes Volochysk Vs YM2-0
24/07/26HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-1
01/06/26HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka2-0
23/05/26APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs YM0-0
17/05/26HYM Vs Probiy Horodenka0-0
09/05/26ANyva Ternopil Vs YM0-3
01/05/26HYM Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk4-0

Polissya IIPolissya II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HPI Vs Prykarpattia1-2
15/08/26AChernihiv Vs PI2-2
09/08/26HPI Vs Metal Kharkiv0-1
03/08/26AInhulets Vs PI2-1
25/07/26HPI Vs UCSA2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.16
HomeDWLLW1.29
AwayDWDLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.242.252.23
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %40%33%46%
Over 3.5 %16%17%15%
Scored1.021.170.88
Conceded1.221.081.35
BTTS36%33%38%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Polissya II
Polissya II
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL0.40
HomeDLL0.33
AwayLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals3.002.673.50
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %80%67%100%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.001.50
Conceded1.801.672.00
BTTS80%67%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka515
100%
3.0
91+8
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.80.2
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava511
60%
2.2
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
3OleksandriaOleksandria511
60%
2.2
115+6
3.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3132.21.0
-
4KulykivKulykiv510
60%
2.0
116+5
3.4
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
5PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia57
40%
1.4
86+2
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.2
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv57
40%
1.4
66+0
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.21.2
-
7InhuletsInhulets57
40%
1.4
79-2
3.2
100%
100%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.8
-
8Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk57
40%
1.4
59-4
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.8
-
9UCSAUCSA56
20%
1.2
88+0
3.2
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.6
-
10Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil56
20%
1.2
55+0
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
11Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'56
40%
1.2
68-2
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
12ChernihivChernihiv54
0%
0.8
56-1
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
13Lokomotiv KyivLokomotiv Kyiv53
0%
0.6
47-3
2.2
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
14Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II53
20%
0.6
38-5
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
15Polissya IIPolissya II52
0%
0.4
69-3
3.0
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.8
-
16Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka52
0%
0.4
412-8
3.2
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.82.4
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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