Yarud Mariupol' vs SK Poltava Result & Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' has struggled recently, suffering two consecutive defeats after a decent run, most notably a 0-2 loss to Ahrobiznes Volochysk. SK Poltava, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, coming off a draw against Nyva Ternopil.

Defensively, Mariupol' has been solid at home, conceding just 0.7 goals per game against similarly strong opponents. However, their scoring record at home is less impressive, averaging 0.8 goals per game. SK Poltava's away form is concerning, conceding 3 goals on average against similar opponents, but they have managed to score 1.5 goals per game in these situations.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.2 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.8% chance. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 82.3% probability.

The model favours a home win, with a 35% probability, but a draw is also a strong possibility, at 32%. SK Poltava has a 33% chance of winning. The Under 3.5 goals is the model's selection, and it's also the home side's most likely selection, with 82.3% probability.

The upset of the day came as SK Poltava stunned Yarud Mariupol' with a 3-0 away win, extending their run of form after a win. This result was a surprise, given that the model's selection, Home win, had a pre-match probability of 35%. Unfortunately for those backing the model's call, it was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Home win was the pre-match favourite. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, hit with a probability of 82.3%, a testament to the model's ability to pick out key trends. The actual final score of 0-3 was well outside the most likely scores predicted by the model, which included a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome.