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Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA Result & Analysis

Date: 26/08/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 2-3
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
22%
30%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
UCSA
UCSA
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCSA win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D13L00D11D01L01L12L11D11D10WH·PRY29/03A·KAR06/04H·NYV12/04A·AHR20/04H·EPI28/04A·PRY04/05H·KAR11/05A·NYV18/05H·AHR24/05H·MET08/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.001.061.000.71
vs Stronger (11)0.731.090.501.001.001.20
vs Similar (19)1.160.791.301.101.000.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W40W10W13LH·MET01/06A·MET08/06A·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.251.002.002.002.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)2.251.002.002.002.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
13.6%
0-0
12.1%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
5.4%
0-3
4.6%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
UCSA goals →
01234
012%14%10%4.6%1.6%
18.0%14%8.7%3.9%1.4%
24.0%5.4%3.7%1.7%0.6%
31.1%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = UCSA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chernihiv
3.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.43
SK Poltava
1.88
Kudrivka
1.71
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.67
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.50
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.50
Metal Kharkiv
1.41
Nyva Ternopil
1.40
UCSA
1.38
Bukovyna
1.36
Prykarpattia
1.33
Minai
1.17
Yarud Mariupol'
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.15
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.71
Kremin'
0.61
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Khust City
0.00
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.21 points worse than UCSA in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chernihiv
2.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.91
UCSA
1.62
SK Poltava
1.46
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.42
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.33
Prykarpattia
1.33
Khust City
1.33
Metal Kharkiv
1.32
Kudrivka
1.25
Nyva Ternopil
1.24
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Minai
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92
Bukovyna
0.91
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.86
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.79
Kremin'
0.65
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.58 goals worse than UCSA in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chernihiv
0.00
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.71
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.74
Kudrivka
0.79
SK Poltava
0.88
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.88
Bukovyna
0.91
Metal Kharkiv
0.95
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.08
Nyva Ternopil
1.16
Prykarpattia
1.17
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.18
Minai
1.30
UCSA
1.46
Yarud Mariupol'
1.46
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.54
Kremin'
1.78
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.92
Khust City
3.00
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.46).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L00D00D01L00D01L00D11D10WH·PRY29/03A·KAR06/04H·NYV12/04A·AHR20/04H·EPI28/04A·PRY04/05H·KAR11/05A·NYV18/05H·AHR24/05H·MET08/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.690.620.360.36
vs Stronger (11)0.270.730.170.670.400.80
vs Similar (19)0.680.371.000.600.330.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W02LH·MET01/06A·MET08/06A·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.750.501.501.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.750.750.501.501.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D11D00D01L11D11D00D00DH·PRY29/03A·KAR06/04H·NYV12/04A·AHR20/04H·EPI28/04A·PRY04/05H·KAR11/05A·NYV18/05H·AHR24/05H·MET08/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.400.310.440.640.36
vs Stronger (11)0.450.360.330.330.600.40
vs Similar (19)0.470.420.300.500.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W00D11DH·MET01/06A·MET08/06A·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.251.500.501.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.500.251.500.501.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (26)
€28m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
KUD (24)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
KKI (3)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€10m
BUK (10)
€4m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (6)
€7m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€11m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
YM wins
0
Draws
0
UCS wins

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/24HYM Vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv1-0
24/05/24HYM Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-1
18/05/24ANyva Buzova Vs YM1-1
11/05/24HYM Vs Karpaty1-2
04/05/24APrykarpattia Vs YM1-0
28/04/24HYM Vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0-1
20/04/24AAhrobiznes Volochysk Vs YM1-1
12/04/24HYM Vs Nyva Buzova0-0
06/04/24AKarpaty Vs YM3-1
29/03/24HYM Vs Prykarpattia1-1

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24HUCS Vs SK Poltava1-3
08/08/24AKudrivka Vs UCS0-1
08/06/24AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs UCS0-4
01/06/24HUCS Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.08
HomeDLLDW0.92
AwayDLDLD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%19%29%
AVG goals2.162.192.12
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %32%31%33%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.000.851.17
Conceded1.161.350.96
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet22%15%29%
Corners---
Cards---
UCSA
UCSA
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWL2.25
HomeWL1.50
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %75%50%100%
AVG goals3.254.002.50
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %75%100%50%
Over 3.5 %75%100%50%
Scored2.252.002.50
Conceded1.002.000.00
BTTS50%100%0%
Clean Sheet50%0%100%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi2356
74%
2.4
4417+27
2.7
74%
48%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
1231.90.7
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava2445
54%
1.9
3521+14
2.3
67%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.9
-
3KudrivkaKudrivka2441
50%
1.7
3019+11
2.0
67%
29%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.20.8
-
4Metalist 1925 KharkivMetalist 1925 Kharkiv2440
46%
1.7
3421+13
2.3
75%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
28
107111.40.9
-
5Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka2436
38%
1.5
3217+15
2.0
62%
29%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.30.7
-
6Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2535
36%
1.4
3129+2
2.4
72%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.2
-
7UCSAUCSA2433
38%
1.4
3935+4
3.1
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.5
-
8Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk2233
45%
1.5
1926-7
2.0
59%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.91.2
-
9PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2432
33%
1.3
3228+4
2.5
67%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.2
-
10Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv2231
36%
1.4
2921+8
2.3
73%
41%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.31.0
-
11BukovynaBukovyna2230
36%
1.4
2020+0
1.8
64%
23%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4230.90.9
-
12Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2630
27%
1.2
2428-4
2.0
65%
31%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
13Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'2428
33%
1.2
2535-10
2.5
71%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.5
-
14MinaiMinai2327
30%
1.2
2330-7
2.3
70%
48%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
15Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya2626
23%
1.0
2440-16
2.5
77%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
16Dinaz VyshhorodDinaz Vyshhorod2417
12%
0.7
1946-27
2.7
79%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
17KreminKremin'2314
13%
0.6
1541-26
2.4
70%
52%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
18ChernihivChernihiv26
100%
3.0
50+5
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.50.0
-
19Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
20Khust CityKhust City30
0%
0.0
49-5
4.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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