The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance for Akademiya Ontustik to come away with the victory, 26% for Yelimay Semey 2 and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.5% chance. Yelimay Semey 2, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.67 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while Akademiya Ontustik, on the road, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. The suggested picks cover a range of outcomes: Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 5.5 at 90.6%, Away +2 handicap at 88.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 88.8%, Home under 2.5 goals at 86.3%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 83.8%. Yelimay Semey 2’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Akademiya Ontustik is on a two-game winning run.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey 2 win
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.86
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
2.20
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.70
2.13
2.00
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.70
2.36
2.09
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
Yelimay Semey 2 goals ↓
Akademiya Ontustik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.2%
7.5%
4.6%
2.1%
1
4.7%
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.7%
6.7%
6.1%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (down), columns = Akademiya Ontustik goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Yelimay Semey 2 is 1.52 points worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Yelimay Semey 2 is 1.14 goals worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Yelimay Semey 2 is 0.61 goals worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Akademiya Ontustik
75.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
74.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Draw + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yelimay Semey 2, so a minus line means Yelimay Semey 2 give that many goals of a start and Akademiya Ontustik receive them. At -1, Yelimay Semey 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yelimay Semey 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 -2
3.7%
Draw -2
7.5%
Akademiya Ontustik +2
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 -1
11.2%
Draw -1
14.6%
Akademiya Ontustik +1
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 +1
50.8%
Draw +1
21.3%
Akademiya Ontustik -1
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 +2
72.0%
Draw +2
15.3%
Akademiya Ontustik -2
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.78
1.09
1.00
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
Under 0.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.14
0.25
1.25
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.13
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.27
1.09
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.0%
Under 1.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.5%
Under 2.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
YS2 wins
0
Draws
0
AO wins
Head-to-head
Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik · H/A from YS2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2