Yelimay Semey 2 will struggle to keep the scoreline low, while Shakhter Karagandy’s recent five-game winning streak suggests a high-scoring encounter. The model favours an away win, with a 56 % probability, a 23 % chance of a home win and a 22 % chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a lively match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Shakhter, a 9.3 % probability. Yelimay’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and three conceded against similar opposition, whereas Shakhter averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Under 7.5 (96.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.7 %), Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.2 %), Under 6.5 (92.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (91.4 %) and Home under 1.5 2H goals (91.1 %).
Results analysis
The win for Shakhter Karagandy extends their five-game winning run, while Yelimay Semey 2’s recent form of LLLWL ends with a 0-3 defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, came through with a 56% probability, and the prediction was correct. The final score of 0-3 matched the actual result. Every model selection hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 96.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.7%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Under 6.5 at 92.5%, Home under 1.5 2H goals at 91.4%, and Away +2 handicap at 90.0%. The model’s predictions performed strongly across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey 2 win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy win✓ Hit
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
2.33
2.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.27
2.94
1.00
2.00
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.54
1.29
3.14
1.07
1.70
1.60
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.1%
Under 2.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.3%
1-1
9.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
2-1
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
0-3 ✓
4.9%
Yelimay Semey 2 goals ↓
Shakhter Karagandy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
5.1%
6.7%
4.9%
2.8%
1
2.9%
9.1%
9.3%
6.9%
3.8%
2
2.6%
5.8%
6.4%
4.8%
2.7%
3
1.2%
2.7%
3.0%
2.2%
1.2%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (down), columns = Shakhter Karagandy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.38
Ekibastuz
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2
0.38
Yelimay Semey 2 is 2.25 points worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Jaiyq
1.12
Astana II
1.12
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Yelimay Semey 2 is 2.68 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 3.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
0.88
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.88
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Yelimay Semey 2 is 1.59 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 0.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Draw✗ Miss
44.4%
Avg Implied -
23%
22%
56%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Shakhter Karagandy✓ Hit
78.2%
Avg Implied -
23%
22%
56%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy✓ Hit
77.4%
Avg Implied -
23%
22%
56%
covers Draw + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.2%
Under
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yelimay Semey 2, so a minus line means Yelimay Semey 2 give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Karagandy receive them. At -1, Yelimay Semey 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yelimay Semey 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.71
1.07
0.57
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
Under 0.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.8%
Under 1.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.63
1.94
0.50
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
0.58
2.07
0.50
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.3%
Under 0.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.8%
Under 1.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.1%
Under 2.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
YS2 wins
0
Draws
0
SK wins
Head-to-head
Yelimay Semey 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy · H/A from YS2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →