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Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2 Prediction & Stats

Date: 22/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Yelimay Semey 2
Yelimay Semey 2
Vs
33%
25%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.4 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, a 22% chance, and the single scoreline most probable is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability. Yelimay Semey 2, playing at home, has been struggling, conceding 3.0 goals per game while scoring only 0.67 against similar opposition, and they have lost three of their last five matches, most recently a 0-3 defeat to Shakhter Karagandy. Tobol 2, on the road, is more potent, scoring 2.0 goals per match and conceding 1.5 against similar teams, yet they have also lost two of their last five, including a 1-3 loss to Taraz. The model favours an Away win, with a 42% chance, compared to a 33% home win and a 25% draw. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.3%), Under 5.5 (87.7%), Over 1.5 (85.7%), Away +2 handicap (83.7%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yelimay Semey 2 win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L12L10W12L25L03L02LA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08A·KAS14/08H·AKT20/08H·SHA27/08A·JAI04/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.880.752.250.751.50
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.500.501.002.00
vs Similar (5)0.802.401.004.000.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L03L40W34L13L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.382.251.252.501.502.00
vs Stronger (7)1.002.571.252.500.672.67
vs Similar (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.6%
0-1
5.3%
1-3
5.2%
1-0
4.5%
Yelimay Semey 2 goals ↓
Tobol 2 goals →
01234
04.5%5.3%5.6%3.3%1.5%
14.5%11%8.8%5.2%2.3%
24.3%7.7%6.8%4.1%1.8%
32.2%4.0%3.6%2.1%0.9%
40.9%1.6%1.4%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (down), columns = Tobol 2 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.38
Ekibastuz
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2
0.38
Yelimay Semey 2 is 0.38 points better than Tobol 2 in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 0.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Jaiyq
1.12
Astana II
1.12
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Yelimay Semey 2 is 0.62 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
0.88
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.88
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Yelimay Semey 2 is 0.38 goals better than Tobol 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Draw
57.7%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 or Tobol 2
75.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Yelimay Semey 2 + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tobol 2
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Draw + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
Under
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Yelimay Semey 2, so a minus line means Yelimay Semey 2 give that many goals of a start and Tobol 2 receive them. At -1, Yelimay Semey 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yelimay Semey 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 -2
6.4%
Draw -2
10.0%
Tobol 2 +2
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 -1
16.3%
Draw -1
16.7%
Tobol 2 +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 +1
57.7%
Draw +1
19.2%
Tobol 2 -1
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yelimay Semey 2)
Yelimay Semey 2 +2
76.9%
Draw +2
13.0%
Tobol 2 -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L00D00D21W02L01LA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08A·KAS14/08H·AKT20/08H·SHA27/08A·JAI04/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.750.501.000.250.50
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (5)0.600.801.001.500.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L02L30W03L02L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.381.500.002.000.751.00
vs Stronger (7)0.001.710.002.000.001.33
vs Similar (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D10W12L04L01L01LA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08A·KAS14/08H·AKT20/08H·SHA27/08A·JAI04/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.381.120.251.250.501.00
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
vs Similar (5)0.201.600.002.500.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L01L01L10W31W11D00DH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.250.500.751.00
vs Stronger (7)1.000.861.250.500.671.33
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.9%-------
Under 6.594.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.3%-------
Under 5.587.7%-------
Over 1.585.7%-------
Away +2 handicap83.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals83.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals79.1%-------
Home +2 handicap76.9%-------
Home or Away75.4%-------
Under 4.575.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals73.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
YS2 wins
0
Draws
0
T2 wins

Head-to-head

Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2 · H/A from YS2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26AJaiyq Vs YS22-0
27/08/26HYS2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-3
20/08/26HYS2 Vs Aktobe Jas2-5
14/08/26AKaspij Aktau 2 Vs YS22-1
06/08/26HYS2 Vs Sport Academy Kairat1-0
30/07/26AEkibastuz Vs YS22-1
24/07/26HYS2 Vs Taraz0-1
16/07/26AKhan Tengri Vs YS20-1

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HT2 Vs Sport Academy Kairat0-1
28/08/26ATaraz Vs T23-1
20/08/26HT2 Vs Khan Tengri3-4
13/08/26AAstana II Vs T20-4
07/08/26AArys Vs T23-0
31/07/26HT2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-2
24/07/26ATuran Turkistan Vs T22-1
17/07/26HT2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yelimay Semey 2
Yelimay Semey 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.75
HomeLWLL0.75
AwayWLLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%25%25%
AVG goals2.623.002.25
Over 1.5 %62%50%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %12%25%0%
Scored0.750.750.75
Conceded1.882.251.50
BTTS38%25%50%
Clean Sheet25%25%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.38
HomeLLLL0.00
AwayLLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%0%25%
AVG goals3.623.753.50
Over 1.5 %88%75%100%
Over 2.5 %75%50%100%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.381.251.50
Conceded2.252.502.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet12%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan819
75%
2.4
198+11
3.4
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.0
-
3Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6JaiyqJaiyq811
38%
1.4
97+2
2.0
62%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
7Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2810
38%
1.2
1214-2
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
8EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
9Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 286
25%
0.8
615-9
2.6
62%
50%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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