Yelimay Semey and Aktobe face a finely balanced contest, each side having slipped from recent defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, while a draw sits at 26% and an away victory at 36%. The expected goal tally is 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance, reflecting the evenly matched offensive and defensive figures: Yelimay scores 1.25 and concedes 1.5 at home against a similarly strong opponent, whereas Aktobe scores 1.33 and concedes 2.0 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 5.5 (90.7%), Over 1.5 (82.4%), Home +2 handicap (82.1%), and Away +2 handicap (80.8%). These picks, each with their own probability, illustrate the cautious optimism surrounding a modestly low-scoring, tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.33
1.57
1.29
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.69
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.93
2.00
1.00
2.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
1.29
1.07
1.62
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.12
1.12
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
1.21
1.40
1.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.7%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.2%
12%
8.0%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.9%
8.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.2%
4.7%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Yelimay Semey is 0.67 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Yelimay Semey is 0.67 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Yelimay Semey is 0.17 goals better than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Yelimay Semey
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Yelimay Semey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.2
0.3
0.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yelimay Semey or Draw
65.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Yelimay Semey + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey or Aktobe
74.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Yelimay Semey + Aktobe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aktobe
60.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Draw + Aktobe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yelimay Semey, so a minus line means Yelimay Semey give that many goals of a start and Aktobe receive them. At -1, Yelimay Semey must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yelimay Semey win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey -2
8.4%
Draw -2
12.2%
Aktobe +2
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey -1
20.6%
Draw -1
19.2%
Aktobe +1
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey +1
65.8%
Draw +1
17.6%
Aktobe -1
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey +2
83.4%
Draw +2
10.3%
Aktobe -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.43
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.36
0.80
0.20
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.64
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.69
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.83
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.79
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.86
0.60
0.80
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Yelimay Semey's squad is €2m less valuable than Aktobe's (€8m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's attack is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€4m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Yelimay Semey's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aktobe's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu