In the upcoming match between Yelimay Semey and Irtysh, the storyline is centered around Yelimay Semey coming off a draw, having a recent form of DDLWW, and facing Irtysh on a 3-game winning run. The model's pick is a home win with a 39% probability, followed by a draw at 26%, and an away win at 34%.
The expected total goals in this match is 3.0. The most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 12.2%. Yelimay Semey has a home scoring average of 2.36 goals and conceding 0.79 goals when facing weaker opponents, while Irtysh has an away scoring average of 2.36 goals and conceding 0.79 goals.
The model's selection is Over 1.5 with an 81.6% probability, which is a significant edge of 9%. This suggests that the model expects a high-scoring match. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (81.6%), and the home win percentage is 39%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
Results analysis
The win extends Yelimay Semey's run, as they now have two consecutive victories. The final score was 3-1, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Yelimay Semey, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was correct, as they were the favourite. The model's selection, Home win, was the correct outcome. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 81.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied 52.7% · @ 1.72
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.58
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.73
Superbet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Irtysh win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.12
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.38
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.17
1.69
1.15
1.82
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.69
1.17
1.50
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (17)
2.12
0.76
2.14
0.86
2.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Irtysh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.93
2.93
0.93
2.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.38
1.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (22)
3.00
0.77
3.36
0.82
2.64
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.26+8.7%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 3.38-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.84+7.7%
Under 2.5
41.8%
@ 1.88-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.8%
@ 2.99+5.2%
Under 3.5
64.2%
@ 1.32-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
2.97
1xBet
2.97
Superbet
2.95
Under
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.8%
@ 1.76+9.8%
No
38.2%
@ 1.91-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
No
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Unibet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.16+5.6%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.26+3.1%
1-2
8.1%@ 11.46+4.5%
1-0
6.5%@ 6.20-0.0%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.50+3.1%
2-0
6.0%@ 7.26+0.4%
0-0
6.0%@ 9.10+1.5%
0-1
6.0%@ 10.25+2.0%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Irtysh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.0%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.5%
12%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.7%
6.3%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Irtysh goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Yelimay Semey is 0.80 points worse than Irtysh in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Yelimay Semey is 0.43 goals worse than Irtysh in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Yelimay Semey is 0.30 goals better than Irtysh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Yelimay Semey
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Irtysh
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Yelimay Semey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Irtysh
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (37)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
29.2
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.77
0.54
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.92
0.00
1.00
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.35
1.43
0.14
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Irtysh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.57
1.40
0.53
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.18
0.45
1.64
0.45
0.73
0.45
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
0.92
0.62
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.77
1.17
0.50
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
0.71
0.71
1.10
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Irtysh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.37
1.53
0.40
1.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.82
0.32
1.73
0.36
1.91
0.27
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+8.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Yelimay Semey's squad is €4m more valuable than Irtysh's (€8m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's attack is €3m more valuable than Irtysh's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Yelimay Semey and Irtysh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's defence is €2m more valuable than Irtysh's (€3m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu