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Yelimay Semey vs Kaisar Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
Vs
55%
25%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kaisar
Kaisar
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Yelimay Semey are tipped to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 20% for Kaisar to lift the trophy. The model expects a modest 2.9 goals in total, with the most probable scoreline a 1-1 draw at 11.8%. Yelimay, playing at home against a weaker side, usually finds the net 2.29 times and concedes just 0.71, while Kaisar, on the road to a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.6% probability. The match will likely see Yelimay win, a draw, or Kaisar win at 55%, 25% and 20% respectively. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 carries a 79.6% chance, and no other picks are offered. The game’s shape points to a competitive contest where Yelimay’s home form gives them the edge, yet Kaisar’s defensive frailty may keep the score low.

Results analysis

Yelimay Semey’s home form, after a recent draw, had the team looking to extend a modest run, yet the pre-match favourite, a Home win at 55%, failed to deliver. The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s prediction incorrect. Kaisar, on the back of two straight defeats, managed a respectable point away. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 79.6%, proved accurate as the game saw two goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, but the expected 2-1 outcome did not materialise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yelimay Semey win✗ Miss
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W32W20W33D21W63W32W41W12L13LH·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09H·ORD28/09A·TUR18/10H·ATY26/10A·TUR08/04A·AKT30/04A·ORD19/07
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.171.771.081.881.24
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.291.641.171.501.381.75
vs Weaker (16)2.310.752.290.712.330.78
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaisarKaisar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D15L11D01L11D22D20W21W11D11DH·ATY23/08A·FC 28/08A·ZHE16/09A·FK 28/09A·ULY18/10A·ZHE26/10A·TAL08/04H·KAI29/04H·FK 13/05H·KAS18/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.531.071.000.932.07
vs Stronger (14)0.791.931.001.120.503.00
vs Similar (15)1.131.271.140.861.121.62
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
01234
06.6%4.7%3.1%1.1%0.3%
19.1%12%5.7%2.0%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
35.7%6.1%3.2%1.1%0.3%
42.6%2.8%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Yelimay Semey is 1.00 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Yelimay Semey is 0.88 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
Zhenys
1.15
FC Astana
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Atyrau
1.73
Okzhetpes
1.73
Yelimay Semey is 0.42 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

KaisarKaisar

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (28)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaisarKaisar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (26)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (1)---0.0-0.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L20W12L01L32W21W20W00D12LH·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09H·ORD28/09A·TUR18/10H·ATY26/10A·TUR08/04A·AKT30/04A·ORD19/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.690.540.820.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.930.001.000.500.88
vs Weaker (16)1.190.381.290.141.110.56
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaisarKaisar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L11D00D11D11D20W10W10W10WH·ATY23/08A·FC 28/08A·ZHE16/09A·FK 28/09A·ULY18/10A·ZHE26/10A·TAL08/04H·KAI29/04H·FK 13/05H·KAS18/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.600.200.470.93
vs Stronger (14)0.430.640.620.250.171.17
vs Similar (15)0.530.530.570.140.500.88
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W00D21W20W31W11D21W12L01LH·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09H·ORD28/09A·TUR18/10H·ATY26/10A·TUR08/04A·AKT30/04A·ORD19/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.080.541.060.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.000.711.170.500.880.88
vs Weaker (16)1.120.381.000.571.220.22
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaisarKaisar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L00D01L00D11D00D11D01L01LH·ATY23/08A·FC 28/08A·ZHE16/09A·FK 28/09A·ULY18/10A·ZHE26/10A·TAL08/04H·KAI29/04H·FK 13/05H·KAS18/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.470.800.471.13
vs Stronger (14)0.361.290.380.880.331.83
vs Similar (15)0.600.730.570.710.620.75
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTK (21)
€11m
ORD (22)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (22)
€8m
FA (19)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
FTK (6)
€4m
KA (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FTK (5)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (10)
€4m
FA (10)
€4m
FTK (10)
€4m
KA (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
YS wins
0
Draws
1
KAI wins

Head-to-head

Yelimay Semey vs Kaisar · H/A from YS
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25AKaisar Vs YS1-2
09/03/25HYS Vs Kaisar2-0
13/07/24AKaisar Vs YS2-1
06/04/24HYS Vs Kaisar1-0

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26AOrdabasy Vs YS3-1
30/04/26AAktobe Vs YS2-1
08/04/26ATuran Turkistan Vs YS1-4
26/10/25HYS Vs Atyrau3-2
18/10/25ATuran Turkistan Vs YS3-6
28/09/25HYS Vs Ordabasy2-1
14/09/25AFC Astana Vs YS3-3
23/08/25HYS Vs Kyzyl-Zhar2-0
16/08/25AKairat Almaty Vs YS2-3
10/08/25HYS Vs Aktobe2-1

KaisarKaisar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26HKAI Vs Kaspiy1-1
13/05/26HKAI Vs FK Tobol Kostanay1-1
29/04/26HKAI Vs Kairat Almaty2-1
08/04/26ATalas Karatau Vs KAI0-2
26/10/25AZhenys Vs KAI2-2
18/10/25AUlytau Vs KAI1-1
28/09/25AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs KAI1-0
16/09/25AZhetysu Vs KAI1-1
28/08/25AFC Astana Vs KAI5-1
23/08/25HKAI Vs Atyrau0-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.62
HomeWWWWW2.05
AwayDWWLL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%32%
AVG goals2.982.913.04
Over 1.5 %88%91%86%
Over 2.5 %60%64%57%
Over 3.5 %24%18%29%
Scored1.681.821.57
Conceded1.301.091.46
BTTS64%55%71%
Clean Sheet22%32%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Kaisar
Kaisar
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDD1.20
HomeDDWDD1.54
AwayDLDDW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%33%19%
AVG goals2.442.042.81
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %40%33%46%
Over 3.5 %20%12%27%
Scored1.101.211.00
Conceded1.340.831.81
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3342.60.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
1242.20.8
-
3AktobeAktobe510
60%
2.0
108+2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5232.01.6
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty39
100%
3.0
83+5
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.71.0
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar48
50%
2.0
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
6OkzhetpesOkzhetpes46
50%
1.5
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay36
67%
2.0
32+1
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
4341.00.7
-
8KaspiyKaspiy56
20%
1.2
99+0
3.6
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey56
20%
1.2
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
10IrtyshIrtysh46
50%
1.5
68-2
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
11ZhenysZhenys34
33%
1.3
64+2
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
12KaisarKaisar32
0%
0.7
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
13AtyrauAtyrau52
0%
0.4
38-5
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
14UlytauUlytau41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
15ZhetysuZhetysu41
0%
0.2
311-8
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
16Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)51
0%
0.2
717-10
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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