Yelimay Semey are tipped to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 20% for Kaisar to lift the trophy. The model expects a modest 2.9 goals in total, with the most probable scoreline a 1-1 draw at 11.8%. Yelimay, playing at home against a weaker side, usually finds the net 2.29 times and concedes just 0.71, while Kaisar, on the road to a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.6% probability. The match will likely see Yelimay win, a draw, or Kaisar win at 55%, 25% and 20% respectively. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 carries a 79.6% chance, and no other picks are offered. The game’s shape points to a competitive contest where Yelimay’s home form gives them the edge, yet Kaisar’s defensive frailty may keep the score low.
Results analysis
Yelimay Semey’s home form, after a recent draw, had the team looking to extend a modest run, yet the pre-match favourite, a Home win at 55%, failed to deliver. The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s prediction incorrect. Kaisar, on the back of two straight defeats, managed a respectable point away. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 79.6%, proved accurate as the game saw two goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, but the expected 2-1 outcome did not materialise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey win✗ Miss
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.77
1.08
1.88
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.64
1.17
1.50
1.38
1.75
vs Weaker (16)
2.31
0.75
2.29
0.71
2.33
0.78
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
1.07
1.00
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.93
1.00
1.12
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.27
1.14
0.86
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.7%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.1%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.7%
6.1%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Yelimay Semey is 1.00 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Yelimay Semey is 0.88 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
Zhenys
1.15
FC Astana
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Atyrau
1.73
Okzhetpes
1.73
Yelimay Semey is 0.42 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Yelimay Semey
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Yelimay Semey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.69
0.54
0.82
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.93
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.38
1.29
0.14
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.60
0.20
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.64
0.62
0.25
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.53
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.08
0.54
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.71
1.17
0.50
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.57
1.22
0.22
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.47
0.80
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.29
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.73
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →