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Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Yelimay Semey win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W23L11D12L30W11D21W32W20W33DA·KAI29/06H·FK 05/07A·ULY12/07H·ZHE19/07H·ZHE26/07A·OKZ02/08H·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.131.501.171.331.11
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.151.690.831.831.431.57
vs Weaker (17)1.590.712.170.501.270.82
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L40W22D11D23L12L00D21W01LH·TOR17/07A·ZHE20/07A·TUR27/07H·ATY03/08A·KAI10/08H·FK 17/08A·ULY24/08H·KYZ28/08H·ZHE13/09A·FK 24/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.971.190.691.211.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.001.381.000.881.002.20
vs Weaker (17)1.350.651.380.501.330.78
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Ordabasy goals →
01234
010%8.1%5.0%1.8%0.5%
111%14%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.2%8.7%4.7%1.7%0.4%
33.7%4.0%2.1%0.8%0.2%
41.3%1.4%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Ordabasy goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
Yelimay Semey is 0.50 points better than Ordabasy in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.35).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Yelimay Semey is 0.38 goals better than Ordabasy in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
Yelimay Semey is 0.12 goals worse than Ordabasy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.08).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (29)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (27)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
12.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.8
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Kairat Almaty
32.2
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L10W20W00D01L12L20W12LA·KAI29/06H·FK 05/07A·ULY12/07H·ZHE19/07H·ZHE26/07A·OKZ02/08H·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.580.580.610.61
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.231.000.001.170.430.86
vs Weaker (17)0.880.291.170.000.730.45
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D20W01L03L01L00D00D01LH·TOR17/07A·ZHE20/07A·TUR27/07H·ATY03/08A·KAI10/08H·FK 17/08A·ULY24/08H·KYZ28/08H·ZHE13/09A·FK 24/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.500.440.360.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.381.000.250.750.601.40
vs Weaker (17)0.470.290.750.120.220.44
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W10W02L10W11D20W20W00D21WA·KAI29/06H·FK 05/07A·ULY12/07H·ZHE19/07H·ZHE26/07A·OKZ02/08H·AKT10/08A·KAI16/08H·KYZ23/08A·FC 14/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.920.580.720.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.920.690.830.671.000.71
vs Weaker (17)0.710.411.000.500.550.36
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L40W02L10W20W11D00D21W00DH·TOR17/07A·ZHE20/07A·TUR27/07H·ATY03/08A·KAI10/08H·FK 17/08A·ULY24/08H·KYZ28/08H·ZHE13/09A·FK 24/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.370.690.250.860.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.380.750.120.400.80
vs Weaker (17)0.880.350.620.381.110.33
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards79.4%--------
Under 3.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards75.3%--------
Over 1.571.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Yelimay Semey's squad is €3m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€8m vs €10m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Yelimay Semey and Ordabasy have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Yelimay Semey's midfield is €2m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€0m vs €3m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's defence is €1m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€3m vs €4m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
YS wins
2
Draws
1
ORD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy · H/A from YS
DateH/AGameScore
15/06/25AOrdabasy Vs YS1-1
10/11/24AOrdabasy Vs YS2-1
28/04/24HYS Vs Ordabasy1-1

Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25AFC Astana Vs YS3-3
23/08/25HYS Vs Kyzyl-Zhar2-0
16/08/25AKairat Almaty Vs YS2-3
10/08/25HYS Vs Aktobe2-1
02/08/25AOkzhetpes Vs YS1-1
26/07/25HYS Vs Zhetysu3-0
19/07/25HYS Vs Zhenys1-2
12/07/25AUlytau Vs YS1-1
05/07/25HYS Vs FK Tobol Kostanay2-3
29/06/25AKaisar Vs YS1-2

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ORD1-0
13/09/25HORD Vs Zhenys2-1
28/08/25HORD Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-0
24/08/25AUlytau Vs ORD2-1
17/08/25HORD Vs FK Tobol Kostanay2-3
10/08/25AKaisar Vs ORD1-1
03/08/25HORD Vs Atyrau2-2
27/07/25ATuran Turkistan Vs ORD0-4
20/07/25AZhetysu Vs ORD1-0
17/07/25HORD Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.70
HomeLLWWW2.08
AwayWDDWD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%64%32%
AVG goals2.662.642.68
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %16%12%20%
Scored1.521.681.36
Conceded1.140.961.32
BTTS60%52%68%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.40
HomeDDLDW1.64
AwayLWDLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.222.122.32
Over 1.5 %54%52%56%
Over 2.5 %40%36%44%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.181.241.12
Conceded1.040.881.20
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2659
69%
2.3
5319+34
2.8
69%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.7
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2657
65%
2.2
6630+36
3.7
92%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.51.2
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2654
62%
2.1
4525+20
2.7
77%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.71.0
-
4Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2648
54%
1.8
4731+16
3.0
88%
54%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4031.81.2
-
5AktobeAktobe2643
50%
1.7
3929+10
2.6
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.51.1
-
6ZhenysZhenys2636
31%
1.4
3730+7
2.6
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2021.41.2
-
7OrdabasyOrdabasy2635
35%
1.3
3728+9
2.5
58%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.1
-
8OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2632
35%
1.2
3545-10
3.1
73%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.31.7
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2627
23%
1.0
2532-7
2.2
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
10ZhetysuZhetysu2624
19%
0.9
2141-20
2.4
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1020.81.6
-
11UlytauUlytau2623
19%
0.9
2041-21
2.3
73%
38%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.6
-
12KaisarKaisar2622
12%
0.8
2442-18
2.5
73%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.6
-
13AtyrauAtyrau2619
15%
0.7
2245-23
2.6
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.81.7
-
14Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2616
15%
0.6
2558-33
3.2
77%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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