Yelimay Semey are the clear favourites, with the model giving a 67 % chance of a home win, 20 % for a draw and 13 % for a Zhetysu victory. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result at 10.8 %. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, with the most probable total being three goals at 22 %. Yelimay’s home form is strong, scoring an average of 2.12 goals and conceding only 0.75 against weaker opponents, while Zhetysu’s away record is poor, netting just 0.71 and allowing 2.57 against stronger sides. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.8 %), Home +2 handicap (95.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6 %), Under 5.5 (90.0 %), Home over 0.5 goals (89.4 %) and Home or Draw (87.0 %). These picks reflect Yelimay’s dominance at home and Zhetysu’s struggle on the road.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yelimay Semey win
65.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu win
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.33
1.57
1.29
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.69
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.93
2.00
1.00
2.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.73
0.77
1.62
0.94
1.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.23
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.44
0.67
1.17
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
4.4%
Yelimay Semey goals ↓
Zhetysu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
3.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.2%
10%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.9%
7.1%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.2%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yelimay Semey goals (down), columns = Zhetysu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Yelimay Semey is 0.80 points better than Zhetysu in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Yelimay Semey is 0.57 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Yelimay Semey is 1.30 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Yelimay Semey
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Yelimay Semey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yelimay Semey or Draw
86.4%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Yelimay Semey + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey or Zhetysu
78.8%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Yelimay Semey + Zhetysu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zhetysu
34.8%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Draw + Zhetysu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 3.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yelimay Semey, so a minus line means Yelimay Semey give that many goals of a start and Zhetysu receive them. At -1, Yelimay Semey must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yelimay Semey win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey -2
22.4%
Draw -2
20.0%
Zhetysu +2
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey -1
42.4%
Draw -1
22.8%
Zhetysu +1
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey +1
86.4%
Draw +1
9.0%
Zhetysu -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Yelimay Semey)
Yelimay Semey +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.5%
Zhetysu -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.43
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.38
0.62
0.12
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.15
0.43
0.86
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.62
0.33
0.33
0.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.64
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.69
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.83
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.38
1.00
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
0.33
0.83
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.3%
Under 0.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.3%
Under 1.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.5%
Under 2.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2H
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Yelimay Semey's squad is €5m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€8m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's attack is €3m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Yelimay Semey and Zhetysu have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Yelimay Semey's defence is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€3m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)