This highly anticipated match in the Wales: FAW Championship between Ynyshir Albions and Cardiff Draconians promises to be a closely contested affair. Cardiff Draconians are coming off a draw against Caerphilly Athletic, while Ynyshir Albions drew against Caerau (Ely) in their last outing. The model predicts an away win, giving Cardiff Draconians a slight edge, with a 37% chance of victory, compared to Ynyshir Albions' 36% and a 27% chance of a draw.
The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring at a 12.5% probability. Cardiff Draconians have struggled to score away from home, averaging 0 goals, while conceding 0, against weaker opponents. Ynyshir Albions, on the other hand, have scored an average of 1 goal at home, but conceded 1.92 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.6% probability. Other suggested picks include: Home win (36%), Draw (27%), Under 1.5 (not present), and Away win (37%).
The Ynyshir Albions' 1-0 win over Cardiff Draconians extends their run of draws and stalemates, but it was the home team who ultimately secured the three points. This result was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite was the away team, Cardiff Draconians, with a 37% chance of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its call was wrong, as it had predicted an away win. The model's selection, the away team, MISSED the Over 1.5 goal mark, which it had a 80.6% probability of hitting.
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.87 | 0.93 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 2.19 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 1.88 | 0.88 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 2.22 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.67 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.30 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.30 | 2.60 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Cardiff Draconians goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 12% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.73 | 1.64 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.50 | 0.55 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | +0.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 11/10/25 | H | 0-0 |
Ynyshir Albions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 2-0 |
Cardiff Draconians| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |