Pontypridd Town are favoured to win, with a 44 % chance of triumph, while a 30 % chance of a Ynyshir Albions win and a 26 % chance of a draw. The match is expected to see three goals on average, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3 % chance. Ynyshir Albions, playing at home against a stronger side, average one goal scored and 1.62 conceded, whereas Pontypridd Town, on the road to a weaker opponent, average 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.4 %, Under 5.5 at 91.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.6 %, Away +2 handicap at 86.4 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 85.1 %, and Under 4.5 at 82.1 %. Each pick carries its own probability, and the model’s selection for the match result is an away win.
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.46 | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.18 | 1.65 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 1.86 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.39 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.42 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pontypridd Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 11% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 4.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 1.18 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.47 | 0.94 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.25 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.82 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.00 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 94.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 94.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 89.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 78.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 75.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 08/08/25 | A | 2-3 |
Ynyshir Albions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |