Ynyshir Albions and Trethomas Bluebirds face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 40% for a Ynyshir victory, 29% for a draw and 32% for a Trethomas triumph, making the home side the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Ynyshir’s home form shows they average one goal scored and two conceded against stronger opponents, while Trethomas, playing away against weaker teams, also average one goal scored and two conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.2%), Under 4.5 (87.2%) and Home +2 handicap (86.0%). These picks reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.46 | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.18 | 1.65 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 1.86 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.13 | 2.31 | 2.23 | 1.00 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Trethomas Bluebirds goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 1.18 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.47 | 0.94 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 0.47 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 83.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 4-1 |
Ynyshir Albions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 5-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |