This match between Yverdon Sport and Étoile Carouge in the Switzerland: Challenge League on July 31, 2026, is shaping up to be a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.4 goals. Yverdon Sport's recent form has been impressive, unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 2-0 win over SC Kriens. Étoile Carouge, on the other hand, comes off a defeat to Neuchatel Xamax FC. The model predicts a home win, with a 42% chance of Yverdon Sport taking the three points, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance of Étoile Carouge winning. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.5% probability. Yverdon Sport has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home, while Étoile Carouge has averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 86.5% and a 6% edge. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 33%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has a probability of 86.5%.
Results analysis
Yverdon Sport's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches came to an end as they drew 1-1 against Étoile Carouge, extending Étoile Carouge's win streak. The final score was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Yverdon Sport, had a 42% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Étoile Carouge secured a draw.
The model's selection, a Home win, had a 42% chance of winning, but the actual result was a draw. The suggested picks were Over 1.5, which hit with an 86.5% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yverdon Sport win✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied 52.8% · @ 1.73
Edge
-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Dafabet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.82
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.12
Dafabet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Étoile Carouge win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.93
Edge
+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.10
Pinnacle
4.07
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yverdon Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.43
1.80
1.40
2.33
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.50
2.00
1.40
2.20
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
2.35
1.15
2.00
1.00
2.70
1.30
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.12
1.44
1.86
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.88
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.25
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.42
1.09
1.36
1.88
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 4.78-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Pinnacle
4.99
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.4%
@ 1.53+6.0%
Under 2.5
33.6%
@ 2.34-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.44
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
@ 2.32+4.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
@ 1.55-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.8%
@ 1.52+7.3%
No
32.2%
@ 2.34-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.5%@ 7.16+4.3%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.51+2.8%
1-2
7.6%@ 12.12+4.0%
2-2
6.9%@ 11.48+3.1%
2-0
5.4%@ 9.56+0.8%
3-1
5.3%@ 11.56+1.5%
1-0
5.0%@ 9.05+0.1%
0-1
4.3%@ 14.24+1.2%
Yverdon Sport goals ↓
Étoile Carouge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.3%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.0%
10%
7.6%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.7%
6.9%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.3%
5.3%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yverdon Sport goals (down), columns = Étoile Carouge goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
FC Winterthur
1.51
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
SC Kriens
1.24
Rapperswil
1.22
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Étoile Carouge
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Yverdon Sport is 0.75 points better than Étoile Carouge in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Winterthur
1.66
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
SC Kriens
1.36
Étoile Carouge
1.28
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Yverdon Sport is 0.81 goals better than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
FC Winterthur
1.41
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
SC Kriens
1.72
Rapperswil
1.72
Yverdon Sport is 0.17 goals better than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yverdon Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.45
0.70
0.30
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.31
0.69
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.74
0.45
0.73
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+5.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Winterthur
FC Aarau
SC Kriens
Rapperswil
FC WIL 1900
Stade Nyonnais