Yverdon Sport’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Neuchatel Xamax, gives the Pythia model a clear edge for a home victory. The model rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 16%, making the home win the single most likely result. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the average goal count leans toward a 3-goal match. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.8% chance, reflecting Yverdon’s stronger home form (1.75 goals scored, 1.25 conceded) against Xamax’s weaker away performance (1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded). The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 85.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its chance.
Results analysis
The win extends Yverdon Sport’s unbeaten run, with a 3-1 triumph over Neuchatel Xamax FC. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 63% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The most likely scoreline, 2-1, was close to the actual result, while the predicted total of 3.3 goals materialised as three goals scored. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 85.4% chance. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home advantage and the model’s overall accuracy, as the favoured outcome and the key selection both came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yverdon Sport win✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yverdon Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.06
1.88
2.25
1.12
1.89
2.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.25
2.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
3.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.78
1.75
1.25
2.00
2.20
Clean sheet %
12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.71
1.56
1.33
1.00
2.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.14
1.25
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.40
1.80
0.80
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
6% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-0
9.0%
3-1 ✓
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.7%
Yverdon Sport goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.0%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.1%
9.6%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.8%
7.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.8%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yverdon Sport goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yverdon Sport
1.83
Lausanne
1.69
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67
FC Aarau
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.56
FC Thun
1.36
FC Schaffhausen
1.22
Bellinzona
1.03
FC Vaduz
1.03
Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.67
Yverdon Sport is 1.17 points better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.94
Yverdon Sport
1.78
FC Aarau
1.75
FC WIL 1900
1.72
FC Thun
1.72
Lausanne
1.61
FC Vaduz
1.50
FC Schaffhausen
1.42
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.17
Bellinzona
1.06
Yverdon Sport is 0.61 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lausanne
1.19
FC WIL 1900
1.44
Yverdon Sport
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Thun
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.56
FC Aarau
1.58
FC Schaffhausen
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
Bellinzona
1.97
Yverdon Sport is 0.33 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yverdon Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.94
0.88
0.62
0.67
1.22
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.75
1.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
35% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.71
0.78
0.56
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yverdon Sport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
0.94
1.38
0.50
1.22
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.25
1.50
0.75
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.67
1.25
0.25
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.00
0.78
0.78
0.62
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.14
0.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.90
0.80
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Yverdon Sport · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi33%
Boris Céspedes25%
Antonio Marchesano24%
Marley Aké21%
Cristiano Piccini20%
Ronaldo Tavares17%
Mitchy Ntelo15%
Moussa Baradji15%
Hugo Komano11%
Varol Tasar11%
William Le Pogam7%
Mauro Rodrigues4%
Fode Sylla4%
Mateusz Łęgowski3%
Christian Marques3%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
Anthony Sauthier0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Franco González0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cristiano Piccini60%
Dimitrije Kamenović50%
Boris Céspedes42%
Mohamed Tijani33%
Moussa Baradji26%
Mateusz Łęgowski24%
Cristian Núñez20%
Vegard Kongsro20%
Christian Marques19%
Dion Kacuri19%
Anthony Sauthier18%
Ronaldo Tavares17%
Varol Tasar17%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves17%
Jason Gnakpa15%
Hugo Komano14%
Fode Sylla14%
William Le Pogam14%
Antonio Marchesano12%
Marley Aké12%
Niklas Gunnarsson9%
Paul Bernardoni8%
Mauro Rodrigues7%
Haithem Loucif0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Franco González0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antonio Marchesano18%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves17%
Franco González14%
Moussa Baradji11%
Marley Aké9%
Mauro Rodrigues7%
Mateusz Łęgowski7%
Dion Kacuri6%
Anthony Sauthier6%
Varol Tasar6%
Boris Céspedes4%
Fode Sylla4%
Christian Marques3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Ronaldo Tavares0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
William Le Pogam0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Hugo Komano0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi67%
Cristiano Piccini20%
Varol Tasar17%
Antonio Marchesano12%
Marley Aké12%
Moussa Baradji11%
Hugo Komano6%
Fode Sylla4%
Anthony Sauthier3%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Ronaldo Tavares0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
William Le Pogam0%
Boris Céspedes0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Christian Marques0%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Franco González0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (23)
€27m
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (8)
€9m
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
FW1 (9)
€1m
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (10)
€13m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lausanne
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
FC Thun
FC Schaffhausen
FC Vaduz
Bellinzona