Zebbug Rangers are set to host Fgura United in a game that the model predicts will end in an away win, with a 53 % chance of that outcome, a 25 % chance of a Zebbug victory and a 23 % chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.8 % probability. Zebbug, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.31 conceded, while Fgura, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.7 %), Under 6.5 (93.6 %), Away +2 handicap (89.0 %), Away over 0.5 goals (87.6 %), Over 1.5 (87.1 %), Under 5.5 (86.0 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (84.1 %). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, with Zebbug’s 1-1 against Marsa and Fgura’s 1-1 against Swieqi United.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zebbug Rangers win
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fgura United win
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zebbug Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.00
2.43
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.28
1.00
2.31
0.92
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fgura United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.60
2.14
1.64
2.06
1.56
vs Stronger (25)
1.96
1.72
2.00
1.75
1.92
1.69
vs Similar (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.8%
Under 2.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.2%
Under 3.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.5%
No
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.9%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.9%
2-1
5.9%
2-3
5.1%
0-3
4.5%
Zebbug Rangers goals ↓
Fgura United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
4.4%
5.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1
2.6%
8.6%
8.9%
6.8%
3.9%
2
2.6%
5.9%
6.7%
5.1%
2.9%
3
1.3%
2.9%
3.3%
2.5%
1.4%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zebbug Rangers goals (down), columns = Fgura United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Zebbug Rangers is 0.55 points worse than Fgura United in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Zebbug Rangers is 0.82 goals worse than Fgura United in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Zebbug Rangers is 0.36 goals worse than Fgura United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zebbug Rangers or Draw
45.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
21%
54%
covers Zebbug Rangers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers or Fgura United
78.5%
Avg Implied -
24%
21%
54%
covers Zebbug Rangers + Fgura United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fgura United
75.9%
Avg Implied -
24%
21%
54%
covers Draw + Fgura United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5
Over
66.5%
Under
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 3.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zebbug Rangers, so a minus line means Zebbug Rangers give that many goals of a start and Fgura United receive them. At -1, Zebbug Rangers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zebbug Rangers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers -2
4.1%
Draw -2
7.1%
Fgura United +2
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers -1
11.1%
Draw -1
13.0%
Fgura United +1
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers +1
45.6%
Draw +1
20.1%
Fgura United -1
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers +2
65.7%
Draw +2
16.4%
Fgura United -2
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zebbug Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.21
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.88
0.23
0.77
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fgura United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.64
0.71
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
0.68
0.67
0.75
0.69
0.62
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.4%
Under 0.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.2%
Under 1.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zebbug Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.79
1.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.40
0.77
1.54
0.58
1.25
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fgura United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.00
1.50
0.93
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (25)
1.28
1.04
1.33
1.00
1.23
1.08
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.0%
Under 0.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.8%
Under 1.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
Zebbug Rangers and Fgura United have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Zebbug Rangers and Fgura United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zebbug Rangers and Fgura United have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →