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Zebbug Rangers vs Marsa Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 1-1
Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Vs
28%
26%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Zebbug Rangers a 28% win probability against Marsa in the Malta: Challenge League on 2026-04-18, with 26% for the draw and 46% for Marsa. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%).

Results analysis

Zebbug Rangers finished 1-1 against Marsa (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 28% home win, 26% draw and 46% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zebbug Rangers win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsa win✗ Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L10W21W03L11D60W02L33D21W10WH·MEL17/01A·MAR31/01H·ST.07/02H·BIR14/02A·SAN21/02H·MTA01/03H·MGA08/03A·ZUR15/03A·GUD04/04A·VIT11/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.301.002.541.182.12
vs Stronger (27)1.072.441.002.541.142.36
vs Similar (3)1.331.00--1.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D01L11D14L22D12L33D10W12L50WH·SAN18/01H·ZEB31/01A·VIT08/02H·BAL15/02H·VIT21/02H·MGA28/02H·GUD08/03A·SAN14/03A·ZUR01/04H·MTA11/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.001.502.311.141.64
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (16)1.312.311.502.751.121.88
vs Weaker (12)1.581.581.712.001.401.00
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.5%
Zebbug Rangers goals ↓
Marsa goals →
01234
06.4%7.8%7.5%4.2%1.8%
15.5%12%9.4%5.3%2.2%
24.2%7.0%5.9%3.3%1.4%
31.8%3.0%2.5%1.4%0.6%
40.6%0.9%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zebbug Rangers goals (down), columns = Marsa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Gudja United
1.45
Fgura United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Zebbug Rangers is 0.05 points better than Marsa in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Balzan FC
2.27
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Zebbug Rangers is 0.41 goals worse than Marsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Zebbug Rangers is 0.32 goals worse than Marsa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D01L00D30W00D21W11D10WH·MEL17/01A·MAR31/01H·ST.07/02H·BIR14/02A·SAN21/02H·MTA01/03H·MGA08/03A·ZUR15/03A·GUD04/04A·VIT11/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.870.230.850.470.88
vs Stronger (27)0.330.930.230.850.431.00
vs Similar (3)0.670.33--0.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D02L11D10W22D10W11D20WH·SAN18/01H·ZEB31/01A·VIT08/02H·BAL15/02H·VIT21/02H·MGA28/02H·GUD08/03A·SAN14/03A·ZUR01/04H·MTA11/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.750.940.571.07
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.501.060.621.000.381.12
vs Weaker (12)1.000.831.000.861.000.80
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (32)
€1m
BIR (28)
€0m
SU (27)
€0m
FU (45)
€0m
ZR (43)
€0m
ZUR (38)
€0m
GU (30)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ZR wins
0
Draws
2
MAR wins

Head-to-head

Zebbug Rangers vs Marsa · H/A from ZR
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26AMarsa Vs ZR0-1
19/01/25AMarsa Vs ZR4-2
25/11/23AMarsa Vs ZR2-0

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs ZR0-1
04/04/26AGudja United Vs ZR1-2
15/03/26AZurrieq Vs ZR3-3
08/03/26HZR Vs Mgarr United0-2
01/03/26HZR Vs Mtarfa6-0
21/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs ZR1-1
14/02/26HZR Vs Birzebbuga0-3
07/02/26HZR Vs St. Andrews2-1
31/01/26AMarsa Vs ZR0-1
17/01/26HZR Vs Melita1-4

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HMAR Vs Mtarfa5-0
01/04/26AZurrieq Vs MAR2-1
14/03/26ASanta Lucía Vs MAR0-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Gudja United3-3
28/02/26HMAR Vs Mgarr United1-2
21/02/26HMAR Vs Vittoriosa Stars2-2
15/02/26HMAR Vs Balzan FC1-4
08/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MAR1-1
31/01/26HMAR Vs Zebbug Rangers0-1
18/01/26HMAR Vs Santa Lucía2-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW1.12
HomeLWLWL1.08
AwayWDDWW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals3.243.213.27
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %46%42%50%
Scored1.481.501.46
Conceded1.761.711.81
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.14
HomeLDLDW0.96
AwayLLDWL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%22%39%
AVG goals3.063.262.83
Over 1.5 %78%78%78%
Over 2.5 %60%67%52%
Over 3.5 %42%52%30%
Scored1.461.481.43
Conceded1.601.781.39
BTTS60%63%57%
Clean Sheet20%22%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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