Zebbug Rangers arrive at home after a draw, but the model still sees the away side as the clear favourite, rating an 74% chance of a Melita win. The team’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal per match and a high 2.31 conceded, while Melita, playing away, averages 3.0 scored and 2.25 conceded against weaker opposition. This imbalance drives the 3.7 expected goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Melita, a 9.2% chance. Home win probability sits at 10%, draw at 16%, and away win at 74%. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Away +2 handicap (96.5%), Under 7.5 (96.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (93.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Under 6.5 (91.6%), Draw or Away (89.9%), and Away +1 handicap (89.9%). All figures are presented exactly as provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zebbug Rangers win
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita win
73.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zebbug Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.00
2.43
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.28
1.00
2.31
0.92
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.67
1.25
1.28
1.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.61
1.56
1.33
0.79
1.79
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
1.71
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.2%
Under 1.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
9.2%
1-2
8.9%
0-3
8.4%
1-3
8.2%
1-1
7.1%
0-1
6.0%
0-4
5.8%
1-4
5.6%
Zebbug Rangers goals ↓
Melita goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
6.0%
9.2%
8.4%
5.8%
1
1.7%
7.1%
8.9%
8.2%
5.6%
2
1.1%
3.2%
4.3%
4.0%
2.7%
3
0.4%
1.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zebbug Rangers goals (down), columns = Melita goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Zebbug Rangers is 0.76 points worse than Melita in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Zebbug Rangers is 0.81 goals worse than Melita in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Zebbug Rangers is 0.71 goals worse than Melita in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zebbug Rangers or Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
10%
16%
74%
covers Zebbug Rangers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers or Melita
84.0%
Avg Implied -
10%
16%
74%
covers Zebbug Rangers + Melita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Melita
89.9%
Avg Implied -
10%
16%
74%
covers Draw + Melita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 3.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zebbug Rangers, so a minus line means Zebbug Rangers give that many goals of a start and Melita receive them. At -1, Zebbug Rangers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zebbug Rangers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers -2
0.9%
Draw -2
2.6%
Melita +2
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers -1
3.5%
Draw -1
6.6%
Melita +1
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers +1
26.1%
Draw +1
19.9%
Melita -1
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zebbug Rangers)
Zebbug Rangers +2
46.0%
Draw +2
20.6%
Melita -2
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zebbug Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.21
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.88
0.23
0.77
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.65
1.22
0.56
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zebbug Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.79
1.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.40
0.77
1.54
0.58
1.25
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.50
0.75
0.78
1.22
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.96
0.33
0.78
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.29
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars