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Zebbug Rangers vs Mgarr United Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2026
Time: 19:30
Final 0-2
Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Vs
20%
24%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mgarr United
Mgarr United
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zebbug Rangers win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United win✓ Hit
55.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L14L04L00D14L10W21W03L11D60WA·BAL14/12H·ZUR17/12H·VIT20/12A·SAN11/01H·MEL17/01A·MAR31/01H·ST.07/02H·BIR14/02A·SAN21/02H·MTA01/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.271.362.291.002.25
vs Stronger (27)1.192.301.382.151.002.43
vs Similar (3)1.002.001.004.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L11D23L51W31W11D24L00D50W21WH·MEL10/12A·PIE13/12H·SIR21/12H·SWI10/01A·MTA18/01A·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.531.871.801.731.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.942.001.672.222.251.75
vs Weaker (13)1.620.922.171.171.140.71
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2 ✓
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.7%
0-0
5.7%
Zebbug Rangers goals ↓
Mgarr United goals →
01234
05.7%8.0%8.8%5.7%2.8%
14.2%11%9.9%6.4%3.1%
22.9%5.7%5.5%3.6%1.8%
31.1%2.1%2.1%1.3%0.7%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zebbug Rangers goals (down), columns = Mgarr United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Zebbug Rangers is 0.59 points worse than Mgarr United in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Zebbug Rangers is 0.82 goals worse than Mgarr United in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Zebbug Rangers is 0.55 goals worse than Mgarr United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L01L00D01L00D00D01L00D30WA·BAL14/12H·ZUR17/12H·VIT20/12A·SAN11/01H·MEL17/01A·MAR31/01H·ST.07/02H·BIR14/02A·SAN21/02H·MTA01/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.930.290.860.311.00
vs Stronger (27)0.300.960.310.770.291.14
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.002.000.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D02L20W11D00D01L00D30W01LH·MEL10/12A·PIE13/12H·SIR21/12H·SWI10/01A·MTA18/01A·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.801.000.600.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.761.060.781.330.750.75
vs Weaker (13)0.620.310.830.500.430.14
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L12L03L00D13L10W21W02L11D30WA·BAL14/12H·ZUR17/12H·VIT20/12A·SAN11/01H·MEL17/01A·MAR31/01H·ST.07/02H·BIR14/02A·SAN21/02H·MTA01/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.331.071.430.691.25
vs Stronger (27)0.891.331.081.380.711.29
vs Similar (3)0.671.331.002.000.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D21W31W20W11D23L00D20W20WH·MEL10/12A·PIE13/12H·SIR21/12H·SWI10/01A·MTA18/01A·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.801.070.801.130.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.180.940.890.891.501.00
vs Weaker (13)1.000.621.330.670.710.57
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ZR wins
1
Draws
1
MU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zebbug Rangers vs Mgarr United · H/A from ZR
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25HZR Vs Mgarr United0-1
21/09/24HZR Vs Mgarr United1-1

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26HZR Vs Mtarfa6-0
21/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs ZR1-1
14/02/26HZR Vs Birzebbuga0-3
07/02/26HZR Vs St. Andrews2-1
31/01/26AMarsa Vs ZR0-1
17/01/26HZR Vs Melita1-4
11/01/26ASanta Lucía Vs ZR0-0
20/12/25HZR Vs Vittoriosa Stars0-4
17/12/25HZR Vs Zurrieq1-4
14/12/25ABalzan FC Vs ZR4-0

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26AMarsa Vs MU1-2
21/02/26HMU Vs Mtarfa5-0
14/02/26AGudja United Vs MU0-0
07/02/26HMU Vs Fgura United2-4
01/02/26AZurrieq Vs MU1-1
18/01/26AMtarfa Vs MU1-3
10/01/26HMU Vs Swieqi United5-1
21/12/25HMU Vs Sirens2-3
13/12/25APietà Hotspurs Vs MU1-1
10/12/25HMU Vs Melita1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.04
HomeLLWLW1.16
AwayLLDWD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals3.243.203.28
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.441.521.36
Conceded1.801.681.92
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Mgarr United
Mgarr United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.51
HomeLLWLW1.37
AwayDWDDW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%37%40%
AVG goals3.083.532.65
Over 1.5 %79%84%75%
Over 2.5 %51%68%35%
Over 3.5 %38%53%25%
Scored1.721.891.55
Conceded1.361.631.10
BTTS62%68%55%
Clean Sheet28%21%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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