Zeljeznicar Sarajevo’s defensive record at home is worrying: they average 2.0 goals conceded per match against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.5. In contrast, Borac Banja Luka, on the road, has been prolific, netting 1.6 goals per game against weaker teams and allowing just 0.3. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 49% chance, followed by a 31% draw and a 21% home win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome (28% probability). The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14.6% chance. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, reflected in the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 4.5 (93.4%), and Away +2 handicap (93.2%). Both sides have recently drawn, with the home side coming off a 1-1 draw and the away side a 2-2 draw, underscoring the defensive focus.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka win
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.47
2.24
0.53
1.46
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.56
1.80
0.40
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.43
2.42
0.58
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.3%
Under 1.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.1%
Under 2.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.9%
Under 3.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
13.0%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
5.0%
0-3
4.8%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Borac Banja Luka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
15%
11%
4.8%
1.6%
1
8.1%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
3.7%
5.0%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Borac Banja Luka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 1.22 points worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 1.17 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.47 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Draw
51.4%
Avg Implied -
21%
31%
49%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Borac Banja Luka
69.4%
Avg Implied -
21%
31%
49%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Borac Banja Luka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
79.2%
Avg Implied -
21%
31%
49%
covers Draw + Borac Banja Luka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, so a minus line means Zeljeznicar Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Borac Banja Luka receive them. At -1, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
1.6%
Draw -2
5.2%
Borac Banja Luka +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
6.8%
Draw -1
14.0%
Borac Banja Luka +1
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
51.4%
Draw +1
24.7%
Borac Banja Luka -1
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
76.1%
Draw +2
15.0%
Borac Banja Luka -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
0.94
0.29
0.69
0.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.24
1.25
0.33
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.23
1.29
0.24
0.77
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.33
1.60
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.19
1.17
0.25
0.89
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borac Banja Luka · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
David Vuković25%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Sandi Ogrinec20%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sebastian Herrera0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enver Kulašin56%
Marko Vukčević40%
Sebastian Herrera33%
Bart Meijers30%
Zoran Kvržić25%
David Vuković25%
Boban Nikolov22%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Nikola Srećković17%
David Čavić12%
Filip Manojlović11%
Jurich Carolina10%
Sandi Ogrinec10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Vuković25%
Zoran Kvržić12%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Đorđe Despotović0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Đorđe Despotović30%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
David Vuković0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's squad is €5m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's attack is €3m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Borac Banja Luka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's defence is €3m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€1m vs €4m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina