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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Sloboda Tuzla Result & Analysis

Date: 04/03/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Vs
48%
31%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✓ Hit
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W01L01L20W21W12L11D13LA·SLO10/09H·SLO18/09A·LEO01/10H·ZRI08/10A·SIR15/10H·VEL22/10A·TUZ31/10H·BOR06/11H·POS19/11A·IGM25/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.321.211.401.001.221.44
vs Stronger (4)1.001.500.501.501.501.50
vs Similar (7)1.291.291.501.001.001.67
vs Weaker (8)1.501.001.750.751.251.25
Clean sheet %21% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L03L01L00D13L20W12L51W22DA·LEO18/09A·ZRI30/09H·SIR08/10A·VEL16/10H·TUZ23/10A·BOR29/10H·FK 05/11A·POS13/11H·IGM20/11A·SLO25/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.101.501.000.501.20
vs Stronger (11)0.731.271.001.000.401.60
vs Similar (9)1.330.892.251.000.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.4%
1-1
13.9%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.7%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Sloboda Tuzla goals →
01234
013%8.1%3.8%1.0%0.2%
114%14%5.1%1.4%0.3%
211%8.5%3.4%0.9%0.2%
34.7%3.8%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.6%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Sloboda Tuzla goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.36
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.61
FK Sarajevo
1.58
Siroki Brijeg
1.45
Velež
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Tuzla City
1.12
Igman Konjic
1.12
Posušje
1.12
Leotar
1.03
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.64 points better than Sloboda Tuzla in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.00
FK Sarajevo
1.52
Tuzla City
1.30
Igman Konjic
1.27
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.27
Sloga Doboj
1.21
Velež
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.18
Siroki Brijeg
1.15
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Leotar
0.88
Posušje
0.85
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.30 goals better than Sloboda Tuzla in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zrinjski
0.64
Borac Banja Luka
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Siroki Brijeg
1.09
Velež
1.12
Sloboda Tuzla
1.24
FK Sarajevo
1.39
Tuzla City
1.39
Posušje
1.39
Leotar
1.39
Igman Konjic
1.45
Sloga Doboj
1.67
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.18 goals better than Sloboda Tuzla in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.24).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W10W01L00D00D10W11D10W01LA·SLO10/09H·SLO18/09A·LEO01/10H·ZRI08/10A·SIR15/10H·VEL22/10A·TUZ31/10H·BOR06/11H·POS19/11A·IGM25/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.420.600.300.440.56
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.501.000.001.50
vs Similar (7)0.570.140.500.000.670.33
vs Weaker (8)0.620.250.750.250.500.25
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L00D00D02L10W10W10W11DA·LEO18/09A·ZRI30/09H·SIR08/10A·VEL16/10H·TUZ23/10A·BOR29/10H·FK 05/11A·POS13/11H·IGM20/11A·SLO25/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.550.500.500.300.60
vs Stronger (11)0.270.640.330.330.201.00
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.750.750.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %65% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D00D01L20W11D01L01L12LA·SLO10/09H·SLO18/09A·LEO01/10H·ZRI08/10A·SIR15/10H·VEL22/10A·TUZ31/10H·BOR06/11H·POS19/11A·IGM25/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.790.790.800.700.780.89
vs Stronger (4)0.750.250.000.501.500.00
vs Similar (7)0.711.141.001.000.331.33
vs Weaker (8)0.880.751.000.500.751.00
Clean sheet %42% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L01L00D11D10W02L41W11DA·LEO18/09A·ZRI30/09H·SIR08/10A·VEL16/10H·TUZ23/10A·BOR29/10H·FK 05/11A·POS13/11H·IGM20/11A·SLO25/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.551.000.500.200.60
vs Stronger (11)0.450.640.670.670.200.60
vs Similar (9)0.780.441.500.250.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ZS wins
1
Draws
0
ST wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Sloboda Tuzla · H/A from ZS
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/22ASloboda Tuzla Vs ZS1-1

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23AIgman Konjic Vs ZS3-1
19/11/22HZS Vs Posušje1-1
06/11/22HZS Vs Borac Banja Luka1-2
31/10/22ATuzla City Vs ZS1-2
22/10/22HZS Vs Velež2-0
15/10/22ASiroki Brijeg Vs ZS1-0
08/10/22HZS Vs Zrinjski0-1
01/10/22ALeotar Vs ZS0-1
18/09/22HZS Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
10/09/22ASloboda Tuzla Vs ZS1-1

Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23ASloga Doboj Vs ST2-2
20/11/22HST Vs Igman Konjic5-1
13/11/22APosušje Vs ST2-1
05/11/22HST Vs FK Sarajevo2-0
29/10/22ABorac Banja Luka Vs ST3-1
23/10/22HST Vs Tuzla City0-0
16/10/22AVelež Vs ST1-0
08/10/22HST Vs Siroki Brijeg0-3
30/09/22AZrinjski Vs ST1-0
18/09/22ALeotar Vs ST0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.53
HomeWLWLD1.60
AwayDWLWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.532.402.67
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %47%30%67%
Over 3.5 %21%20%22%
Scored1.321.401.22
Conceded1.211.001.44
BTTS68%60%78%
Clean Sheet21%30%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.00
HomeDLDWW1.50
AwayLLLLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%40%0%
AVG goals2.102.501.70
Over 1.5 %60%70%50%
Over 2.5 %30%30%30%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.001.500.50
Conceded1.101.001.20
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet30%30%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3378
76%
2.4
6621+45
2.6
70%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.00.6
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3358
55%
1.8
3932+7
2.2
58%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.21.0
-
3Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3353
45%
1.6
4235+7
2.3
67%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.1
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3352
45%
1.6
5046+4
2.9
70%
48%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.4
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3348
39%
1.5
3836+2
2.2
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.21.1
-
6VeležVelež3345
33%
1.4
4037+3
2.3
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.1
-
7Tuzla CityTuzla City3337
30%
1.1
4346-3
2.7
64%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
8Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3337
27%
1.1
4248-6
2.7
70%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3337
30%
1.1
4055-15
2.9
76%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.7
-
10PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
2846-18
2.2
67%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
11LeotarLeotar3334
27%
1.0
2946-17
2.3
64%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3332
21%
1.0
3241-9
2.2
61%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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