Zeljeznicar Sarajevo’s recent home form shows a modest 1.08 goals per game while conceding 1.0, suggesting a balanced attack and defense against similarly ranked opponents. Sloga Doboj, on the road, averages only 0.38 scored and 1.25 conceded, indicating a weaker offensive output. The model predicts a 48% chance of a home win, 24% draw, and 28% away win, making a home victory the most likely outcome. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 10.2% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Under 6.5 (93.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Home +2 handicap (86.8%), Under 5.5 (86.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.3%). The remaining picks, Over 1.5 (86.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (86.0%), are less likely. With the home side’s slight edge in scoring and the away side’s defensive frailty, the match is poised for a competitive, goal-rich contest.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Željeznicar Sarajevo, failed to materialise as Sloga Doboj edged them 0-1. The model had picked a home victory with a 48% probability, but the outcome was an away win. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away triumph. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Home +2 handicap, Under 5.5, Home under 3.5 goals all hit, while Over 1.5 and Home over 0.5 goals missed. Each probability was expressed as a percentage: 97.5%, 93.9%, 93.7%, 86.8%, 86.7%, 86.5%, 86.3%, and 86.0%. The match ended with a narrow away win, leaving the model’s favourite disappointed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
1.47
0.93
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.17
1.08
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.30
1.12
1.19
0.86
1.43
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.83
0.86
1.71
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.00
1.33
0.78
0.38
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.4%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Sloga Doboj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.8%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
1
5.4%
10%
6.9%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
4.1%
6.0%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.0%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Sloga Doboj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 2.00 points better than Sloga Doboj in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 3.00 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.67 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Draw✗ Miss
71.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Sloga Doboj✓ Hit
76.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sloga Doboj✓ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Draw + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, so a minus line means Zeljeznicar Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Sloga Doboj receive them. At -1, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap +2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)Actual: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
86.8%
Draw +2
8.3%
Sloga Doboj -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.75
0.33
0.58
0.25
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.83
0.29
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.53
0.89
0.56
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
1.07
0.33
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.42
0.75
0.42
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.25
0.69
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.29
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.47
0.44
0.22
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
Zrinjski
FK Sarajevo
Velež
Siroki Brijeg
Radnik Bijeljina
Posušje
Rudar Prijedor