Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 21% for Velež. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% chance. Home side average goals scored 1.17 and conceded 1.33 against similar opposition, while Velež averages 1.0 for and 1.0 against on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.9%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4%). Both teams are coming off defeats, with Zrinjski 0-2 and Celik 0-3, adding a cautious tone to the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.67
0.73
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.45
1.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.72
1.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
5.0%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.4%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
10%
8.9%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.0%
4.3%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.25 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.06 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.06 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Draw
78.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
21%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Velež
70.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
21%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež
50.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
21%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
Under
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, so a minus line means Zeljeznicar Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
9.8%
Draw -2
15.4%
Velež +2
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
25.2%
Draw -1
24.3%
Velež +1
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
78.9%
Draw +1
13.9%
Velež -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.4%
Velež -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.60
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.39
1.00
0.30
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.8%
Under 0.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.8%
Under 1.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.0%
Under 2.5
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina