The match between Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Zrinjski is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 38% respectively, with a 30% chance of a draw. The expected total goals are 2.4, and the most likely total is 2, occurring 27% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability.
Zeljeznicar, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Zrinjski, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Recent form shows Zeljeznicar coming off a 1-1 draw with Siroki Brijeg, while Zrinjski are on a five-game winning streak, beating BSK Banja Luka 3-1.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 79%, Under 3.5 at 77.2% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 75.3%, and Over 1.5 at 71.1% (miss). Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge for Under 3.5 is noted.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Zrinjski, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given the away side a 38% chance of victory, yet the teams could not break the deadlock, and the final result was a stalemate. The model’s other selections proved mixed: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 77.2% probability, while Over 1.5 missed at 71.1%. Zrinjski entered on a five-game winning run, but the defensive solidity of both sides kept the scoreline at zero, extending the home side’s recent draw and leaving the away side’s winning streak unbroken in spirit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.60
0.87
0.60
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
2.00
0.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.29
1.62
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
1.36
1.50
0.83
0.40
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.27
2.40
1.20
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
2.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.53
1.24
3.00
1.11
2.00
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0 ✓
10.1%
0-1
9.9%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Zrinjski goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.9%
7.1%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.9%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.9%
7.5%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Zrinjski goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 1.00 points worse than Zrinjski in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 2.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 1.24 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.27 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.40
0.27
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.27
0.45
0.33
0.17
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.47
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
1.00
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.20
0.60
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.71
1.12
0.62
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.91
1.17
0.67
0.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.93
0.53
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.75
2.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.56
0.00
0.75
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.44
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zrinjski
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zvonimir Kožulj25%
Aldin Hrvanović17%
Nemanja Bilbija12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zvonimir Kožulj50%
Dario Čanađija43%
Nemanja Bilbija38%
Aldin Hrvanović33%
Slobodan Jakovljević29%
Filip Bradarić25%
Matija Malekinušić25%
Kerim Memija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tomislav Kiš25%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Čanađija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Matija Malekinušić0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's squad is €4m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's attack is €2m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Zrinjski have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's defence is €2m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€1m vs €3m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
Velež
FK Sarajevo
Posušje
Sloga Doboj
Siroki Brijeg
GOŠK Gabela
Igman Konjic
Tuzla City
Zvijezda 09