Zrinjski are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory against a Zeljeznicar side that has struggled at home, conceding two goals for every half a goal scored. The model predicts a 2-goal match, most likely ending 1-1 with a 13.6% probability. The expected total is 2.4 goals, so the game should be modest in firepower. Zeljeznicar, playing against a stronger opponent, average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Zrinjski, on a four-game winning streak, average 1.73 scored and 0.82 conceded against weaker teams. Home win probability sits at 23%, a draw at 29%, and an away win at 48%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Away +2 handicap (91.7%) and Under 4.5 (90.2%). These selections reflect the low-scoring nature the model expects.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski win
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.87
1.73
0.67
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.79
0.71
1.85
0.62
1.73
0.82
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
12.2%
0-2
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.2%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Zrinjski goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
12%
10%
5.2%
2.0%
1
6.8%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
3.6%
5.5%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
3
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Zrinjski goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.81 points worse than Zrinjski in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.39 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.33 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Draw
49.6%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
50%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Zrinjski
71.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
50%
covers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zrinjski
78.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
50%
covers Draw + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, so a minus line means Zeljeznicar Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Zrinjski receive them. At -1, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.6%
Zrinjski +2
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
7.6%
Draw -1
13.7%
Zrinjski +1
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
49.6%
Draw +1
23.8%
Zrinjski -1
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
73.5%
Draw +2
15.8%
Zrinjski -2
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.29
0.85
0.23
0.91
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.42
1.00
0.38
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zrinjski · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Slobodan Jakovljević33%
Vitalie Damașcan25%
Karlo Abramović20%
Mario Ćuže17%
Leo Mikić12%
Duje Dujmović12%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neven Đurasek57%
Vitalie Damașcan50%
Karlo Abramović40%
Kerim Memija33%
Ilija Mašić25%
Duje Dujmović25%
Nemanja Bilbija20%
Marko Vranjković20%
Igor Savić14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Vranjković20%
Neven Đurasek14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Mario Ćuže33%
Petar Mamić14%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Leo Mikić0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's squad is €4m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's attack is €2m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Zrinjski have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's defence is €2m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€1m vs €3m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina