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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09 Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Vs
71%
18%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 win✗ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L31W10W01L23L03L12L21W03LH·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08A·VEL03/09H·GOŠ15/09A·SLO20/09A·ZRI24/09H·SIR02/10A·FK 08/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.271.800.930.601.60
vs Stronger (4)0.751.502.000.000.332.00
vs Similar (14)1.211.211.861.000.571.43
vs Weaker (12)1.331.251.711.000.801.60
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zvijezda 09) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 09

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L34L02L10W35L24L12L02L02L11DA·VEL29/07H·IGM05/08A·GOŠ12/08H·SLO19/08A·ZRI27/08A·BOR01/09A·SIR17/09H·POS24/09A·FK 30/09H·TUZ07/10
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.701.251.751.003.33
vs Stronger (6)1.003.330.002.001.203.60
vs Similar (4)1.251.751.671.670.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.5%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.8%
1-0 ✓
7.5%
4-0
5.3%
4-1
4.9%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals ↓
Zvijezda 09 goals →
01234
04.0%2.3%1.4%0.4%0.1%
17.5%8.3%3.5%1.1%0.2%
210%9.4%4.3%1.3%0.3%
38.5%7.8%3.6%1.1%0.3%
45.3%4.9%2.2%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Zvijezda 09 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.67 points better than Zvijezda 09 in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 0.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 0.06 goals better than Zvijezda 09 in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is 1.09 goals better than Zvijezda 09 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 2.18).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D00D10W01L10W10W02LH·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08A·VEL03/09H·GOŠ15/09A·SLO20/09A·ZRI24/09H·SIR02/10A·FK 08/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.600.330.200.67
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.000.000.330.67
vs Similar (14)0.430.500.710.290.140.71
vs Weaker (12)0.420.500.570.430.200.60
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zvijezda 09) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 09

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L13L01L00D23L21W02L00D02L00DA·VEL29/07H·IGM05/08A·GOŠ12/08H·SLO19/08A·ZRI27/08A·BOR01/09A·SIR17/09H·POS24/09A·FK 30/09H·TUZ07/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.500.250.750.672.00
vs Stronger (6)0.671.830.000.000.802.20
vs Similar (4)0.251.000.331.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D21W10W01L13L02L02L11D01LH·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08A·VEL03/09H·GOŠ15/09A·SLO20/09A·ZRI24/09H·SIR02/10A·FK 08/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.771.200.600.400.93
vs Stronger (4)0.501.002.000.000.001.33
vs Similar (14)0.790.711.140.710.430.71
vs Weaker (12)0.920.751.140.570.601.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zvijezda 09) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 09

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W01L10W12L03L10W02L00D11DA·VEL29/07H·IGM05/08A·GOŠ12/08H·SLO19/08A·ZRI27/08A·BOR01/09A·SIR17/09H·POS24/09A·FK 30/09H·TUZ07/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.201.001.000.331.33
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.002.000.401.40
vs Similar (4)1.000.751.330.670.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zvijezda 09 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.2%-------✗ Miss
Home win71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ZS wins
0
Draws
0
Z0 wins

Head-to-head

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09 · H/A from ZS
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23AFK Sarajevo Vs ZS3-0
02/10/23HZS Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
24/09/23AZrinjski Vs ZS2-1
20/09/23ASloga Doboj Vs ZS3-0
15/09/23HZS Vs GOŠK Gabela2-3
03/09/23AVelež Vs ZS1-0
30/08/23HZS Vs Igman Konjic1-0
26/08/23HZS Vs Tuzla City3-1
19/08/23APosušje Vs ZS1-0
12/08/23HZS Vs Borac Banja Luka2-0

Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 09

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HZ0 Vs Tuzla City1-1
30/09/23AFK Sarajevo Vs Z02-0
24/09/23HZ0 Vs Posušje0-2
17/09/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs Z02-1
01/09/23ABorac Banja Luka Vs Z04-2
27/08/23AZrinjski Vs Z05-3
19/08/23HZ0 Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
12/08/23AGOŠK Gabela Vs Z02-0
05/08/23HZ0 Vs Igman Konjic3-4
29/07/23AVelež Vs Z05-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.49
HomeWWWLW1.92
AwayLLLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%54%30%
AVG goals2.472.622.30
Over 1.5 %70%71%70%
Over 2.5 %49%46%52%
Over 3.5 %21%29%13%
Scored1.261.670.83
Conceded1.210.961.48
BTTS53%58%48%
Clean Sheet23%33%13%
Corners10.008.0012.00
Cards5.004.007.00
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD0.40
HomeLWLD1.00
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%25%0%
AVG goals3.803.004.33
Over 1.5 %90%75%100%
Over 2.5 %50%25%67%
Over 3.5 %40%25%50%
Scored1.101.251.00
Conceded2.701.753.33
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet10%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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