PythiaFootballBETA
Zenit are expected to prevail over Dynamo, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a defeat, while Dynamo are on a high after a win. The model predicts a home win, with a 52% probability of Zenit taking the three points, 27% chance of a draw, and 21% probability of Dynamo emerging victorious.
The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%.
At home, Zenit have scored an average of 2.15 goals and conceded 0.54, while Dynamo have scored 1.0 goal and conceded 2.0 when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls with 83% probability, Over 1.5 with 74.3% probability, and Under 3.5 with 73.7% probability, which also has an edge of 6%.
Zenit have a 52% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of losing. The model's selections are Over 21.5 fouls (83%), Over 1.5 (74.3%), and Under 3.5 (73.7%).
The win extends Zenit's run of four consecutive victories, following a 3-0 triumph over Dynamo. The final score was a convincing 3-0 in favour of the home side, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call was correct. The model's selection of over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 86.8%, while over 1.5 hits also came in, with a probability of 74.4%. Under 3.5 was another successful model selection, with a probability of 73.6%.
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 0.50 | 1.69 | 0.56 | 1.86 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 1.85 | 0.52 | 1.85 | 0.62 | 1.86 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.03 | 2.00 | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.31 | 0.85 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.15 | 1.00 | 2.44 | 0.89 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Dynamo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.9% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
ZenitDynamoZenit| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 27.1 | 25.9 | 28.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 9.2 | 6.0 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 28.2 | 31.5 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (45) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 26.9 | 25.2 | 28.6 |
| % over line | 51% | 44% | 58% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 84% | 72% | 95% |
| % under line | 49% | 56% | 42% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 16% | 28% | 5% |
Dynamo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 27.5 | 27.6 | 27.4 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 29.0 | 26.0 | 32.0 |
| vs Similar (23) | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 30.2 | 30.8 | 29.8 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 10.5 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 24.7 | 25.2 | 24.1 |
| % over line | 51% | 37% | 67% | 64% | 72% | 56% | 95% | 100% | 89% |
| % under line | 49% | 63% | 33% | 36% | 28% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 11% |
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.17 | 0.88 | 0.12 | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.89 | 0.19 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.11 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.00 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.81 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.96 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 0.21 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+53pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.63 | 1.27 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 0.54 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.15 | 0.69 | 1.44 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | -1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.6% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | +6.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 27/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/11/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/08/23 | H | 2-3 |
Zenit| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
Dynamo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 05/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 18 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 33% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 83% | 25.2 | 67% | 114 | 34 | 35 | 45 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 6.5 | 83% | 30.3 | 100% | 129 | 59 | 37 | 34 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 3 | Zenit | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | 9.8 | 33% | 5.0 | 83% | 26.3 | 67% | 182 | 100 | 31 | 50 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.3 | 17% | 3.8 | 33% | 26.8 | 83% | 111 | 37 | 48 | 26 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.5 | 33% | 27.3 | 83% | 30 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 36% |
| 6 | Dynamo | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.0 | 17% | 4.4 | 80% | 27.2 | 100% | 110 | 45 | 24 | 42 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 63% |
| 7 |  Rubin | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 33% | 7.7 | 17% | 3.7 | 33% | 24.3 | 67% | 45 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 8 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 9.5 | 67% | 4.5 | 50% | 23.7 | 67% | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.0 | 83% | 33% | 0% | 8.5 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 30.7 | 100% | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 39% |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.8 | 17% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.5 | 83% | 30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Krylia Sovetov | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 8.5 | 17% | 5.0 | 60% | 27.3 | 83% | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 12 |  FC Rostov | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 4.5 | 33% | 27.7 | 83% | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.8 | 33% | 28.2 | 83% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 44% |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 7.0 | 17% | 3.5 | 33% | 27.2 | 83% | 68 | 21 | 8 | 40 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3.5 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 8.5 | 17% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 67% | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 54% |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | 9.8 | 67% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 83% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 48% |