PythiaFootballBETA
Zenit, with a 77% chance of winning, stands out as the clear favourite. Their recent form, with a 5-game winning streak, suggests they're in top gear, and this trend is likely to continue at home, where they've been scoring an average of 2.07 goals per game, conceding just 0.5. Rodina Moskva, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, scoring no goals and conceding 3 on average.
The expected total goals stands at 2.9, with the most likely score being 2-0, a 15.3% probability. The most likely total goals is 2. The model's selection is the home win, with a 77% probability.
The home side's home scoring and conceding stats are impressive, while the away side's away form is concerning. The model suggests several selections, including Over 9.5 corners at 80.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.6%, and Over 1.5 at 78.7%. The home win is also the model's selection, with a 76.6% probability. The probabilities for the home win, draw, and away win are 77%, 17%, and 6%, respectively.
The upset of the day came as Rodina Moskva secured a 1-2 win over Zenit, extending their recent form's run of mixed results. This result was a surprise given the pre-match favourite, Zenit, whose home win was predicted with a 77% probability by the Pythia model. Unfortunately for Zenit fans, the model's call was wrong.
The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite with a 77% probability, but Rodina Moskva had other plans. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed as follows: Over 9.5 corners hit with an 80.4% probability, Over 21.5 fouls missed with a 79.6% probability, Over 1.5 hit with a 78.7% probability, and the model's own selection, Home win, missed with a 76.6% probability.
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 0.43 | 1.73 | 0.47 | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 1.85 | 0.44 | 1.92 | 0.50 | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Rodina Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 0.87 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 1.73 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.88 | 0.94 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.77 | 0.62 | 1.57 | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Rodina Moskva goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 15% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 12% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
ZenitRodina MoskvaZenit| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 27.2 | 26.2 | 28.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 9.2 | 6.0 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 28.2 | 31.5 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (45) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 27.1 | 25.5 | 28.6 |
| % over line | 50% | 41% | 58% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 86% | 76% | 95% |
| % under line | 50% | 59% | 42% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
Rodina Moskva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 13.5 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 16.0 | - | 16.0 | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | 25.0 | - | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (30) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 35.0 | 35.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (19) | - | - | - | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.17 | 0.87 | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.89 | 0.19 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.87 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
Rodina Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.17 | 0.87 | 0.13 | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.12 | 0.12 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 1.50 | 0.12 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.23 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.50 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.27 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.96 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
Rodina Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.75 | 0.81 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | -5.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home win | 76.6% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -6.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 75.7% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +8.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.1% | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | +0.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Zenit| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
Rodina Moskva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 18 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 33% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 83% | 25.2 | 67% | 114 | 34 | 35 | 45 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 6.5 | 83% | 30.3 | 100% | 129 | 59 | 37 | 34 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 3 | Zenit | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | 9.8 | 33% | 5.0 | 83% | 26.3 | 67% | 182 | 100 | 31 | 50 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.3 | 17% | 3.8 | 33% | 26.8 | 83% | 111 | 37 | 48 | 26 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.5 | 33% | 27.3 | 83% | 30 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 36% |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.0 | 17% | 4.4 | 80% | 27.2 | 100% | 110 | 45 | 24 | 42 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 63% |
| 7 |  Rubin | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 33% | 7.7 | 17% | 3.7 | 33% | 24.3 | 67% | 45 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 8 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 9.5 | 67% | 4.5 | 50% | 23.7 | 67% | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.0 | 83% | 33% | 0% | 8.5 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 30.7 | 100% | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 39% |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.8 | 17% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.5 | 83% | 30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Krylia Sovetov | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 8.5 | 17% | 5.0 | 60% | 27.3 | 83% | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 12 |  FC Rostov | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 4.5 | 33% | 27.7 | 83% | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.8 | 33% | 28.2 | 83% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 44% |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 7.0 | 17% | 3.5 | 33% | 27.2 | 83% | 68 | 21 | 8 | 40 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3.5 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 8.5 | 17% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 67% | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 54% |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | 9.8 | 67% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 83% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 48% |