Zeta’s home form, highlighted by a recent two-game winning streak, tips the balance in their favour, and the model picks a home win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the single most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13.8%. Zeta averages one goal scored and 0.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Grbalj, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 45% for a Zeta win, 29% for a draw, and 26% for a Grbalj win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 5.5 at 95.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.0%, Home +2 handicap at 89.6%, and Under 4.5 at 89.3%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as none are provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zeta win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grbalj win
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zeta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.17
0.67
1.13
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.26
0.44
1.44
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.73
0.93
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (20)
1.45
1.40
1.64
0.82
1.22
2.11
vs Similar (5)
1.80
0.40
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.20
2.50
2.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.7%
Zeta goals ↓
Grbalj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.0%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zeta goals (down), columns = Grbalj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Zeta is 0.86 points worse than Grbalj in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Zeta is 1.25 goals worse than Grbalj in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Zeta is 0.67 goals better than Grbalj in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zeta or Draw
73.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Zeta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeta or Grbalj
71.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Zeta + Grbalj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grbalj
55.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Grbalj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zeta over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 1.5
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zeta, so a minus line means Zeta give that many goals of a start and Grbalj receive them. At -1, Zeta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zeta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zeta)
Zeta -2
8.6%
Draw -2
13.8%
Grbalj +2
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zeta)
Zeta -1
22.4%
Draw -1
22.3%
Grbalj +1
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zeta)
Zeta +1
73.6%
Draw +1
16.0%
Grbalj -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zeta)
Zeta +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.4%
Grbalj -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zeta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.25
0.62
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.63
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
0.18
0.55
0.00
0.33
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zeta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zeta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.20
0.50
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.45
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.85
0.75
1.09
0.45
0.56
1.11
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.00
1.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zeta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mogren
Lovćen
Kom
Iskra (Montenegro)
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)
Berane