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Zhenys vs Atyrau Result & Analysis

Date: 21/06/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Zhenys
Zhenys
Vs
43%
32%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Zhenys are set to defend a tight, low-scoring match, with the model projecting a 43% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw and 26% for an away win, making a home victory the clear favourite. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a cautious affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Zhenys’ home form shows they score 0.57 and concede 0.43 goals against similar opposition, while Atyrau’s away record against comparable teams yields 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 goals at 83.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 74.2%. The home side’s recent 3-game winning run, including a 1-0 win over Altay, contrasts with Atyrau’s two-game losing streak and a 2-3 loss to FC Astana. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact figure.

Results analysis

Zhenys continued their three-game winning streak, beating Altay 1-0 before hosting Atyrau. The model’s favourite, a home win, was right as Zhenys secured a 2-0 victory. The prediction of 2-0 matched the final score, confirming the favoured result. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 83.4% probability, and the most likely total of 2 goals came through. The model’s pick of a home win had a 43% probability and proved correct. All suggested picks were settled, each with its stated probability and outcome. The match delivered on the model’s expectations.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zhenys win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atyrau win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZhenysZhenys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L11D01L12L11D00D24L22D20WH·AKT13/04H·YEL20/04A·OKZ26/04H·AKT03/05H·KAI09/05H·FC 14/05H·KYZ18/05A·FC 24/05H·ORD30/05A·TUR14/06
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.030.751.000.931.07
vs Stronger (13)1.001.540.891.441.251.75
vs Similar (17)0.710.650.570.430.800.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L12L12L02L12L01L11D12L05L01LA·KAI16/04H·KYZ19/04A·FC 26/04H·FC 30/04H·ORD03/05A·TUR10/05H·ZHE17/05H·KAI25/05A·FK 30/05H·ULY14/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.731.001.440.832.17
vs Stronger (16)0.692.060.701.700.672.67
vs Similar (14)1.211.361.381.121.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.7%
Under 2.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
13.2%
0-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
9.0%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.8%
Zhenys goals ↓
Atyrau goals →
01234
013%9.4%4.8%1.4%0.3%
113%14%5.9%1.8%0.4%
29.0%8.1%3.6%1.1%0.2%
33.7%3.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.1%1.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhenys goals (down), columns = Atyrau goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
Zhenys is 0.65 points better than Atyrau in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Zhenys is 0.58 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
Zhenys is 0.58 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ZhenysZhenys

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AtyrauAtyrau

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ZhenysZhenys

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (19)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (30)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (1)---0.0-0.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
FC Astana
3.9
Kairat Almaty
3.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZhenysZhenys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L02L00D00D21W20W00DH·AKT13/04H·YEL20/04A·OKZ26/04H·AKT03/05H·KAI09/05H·FC 14/05H·KYZ18/05A·FC 24/05H·ORD30/05A·TUR14/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.330.440.380.500.29
vs Stronger (13)0.620.540.440.671.000.25
vs Similar (17)0.350.180.430.000.300.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L02L01L01L01L00D00D03L01LA·KAI16/04H·KYZ19/04A·FC 26/04H·FC 30/04H·ORD03/05A·TUR10/05H·ZHE17/05H·KAI25/05A·FK 30/05H·ULY14/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.770.280.500.421.17
vs Stronger (16)0.250.880.200.600.331.33
vs Similar (14)0.430.640.380.380.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZhenysZhenys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W00D10W11D00D03L02L20WH·AKT13/04H·YEL20/04A·OKZ26/04H·AKT03/05H·KAI09/05H·FC 14/05H·KYZ18/05A·FC 24/05H·ORD30/05A·TUR14/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.700.310.620.430.79
vs Stronger (13)0.381.000.440.780.251.50
vs Similar (17)0.350.470.140.430.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D10W01L11D00D11D12L02L00DA·KAI16/04H·KYZ19/04A·FC 26/04H·FC 30/04H·ORD03/05A·TUR10/05H·ZHE17/05H·KAI25/05A·FK 30/05H·ULY14/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.720.940.421.00
vs Stronger (16)0.441.190.501.100.331.33
vs Similar (14)0.790.711.000.750.500.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards80.5%--------
Over 2.5 cards74.2%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhenys and Atyrau have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Zhenys and Atyrau have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhenys and Atyrau have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhenys and Atyrau have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ZHE wins
0
Draws
2
ATY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zhenys vs Atyrau · H/A from ZHE
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/24AAtyrau Vs ZHE2-1
02/06/24HZHE Vs Atyrau0-1

ZhenysZhenys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/06/25ATuran Turkistan Vs ZHE0-2
30/05/25HZHE Vs Ordabasy2-2
24/05/25AFC Astana Vs ZHE4-2
18/05/25HZHE Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-0
14/05/25HZHE Vs FC Astana1-1
09/05/25HZHE Vs Kairat Almaty1-2
03/05/25HZHE Vs Aktobe0-1
26/04/25AOkzhetpes Vs ZHE1-1
20/04/25HZHE Vs Yelimay Semey0-1
13/04/25HZHE Vs Aktobe1-0

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/06/25HATY Vs Ulytau0-1
30/05/25AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ATY5-0
25/05/25HATY Vs Kaisar1-2
17/05/25HATY Vs Zhetysu1-1
10/05/25ATuran Turkistan Vs ATY1-0
03/05/25HATY Vs Ordabasy1-2
30/04/25HATY Vs FC Astana0-2
26/04/25AFC Astana Vs ATY2-1
19/04/25HATY Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-2
16/04/25AKairat Almaty Vs ATY4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zhenys
Zhenys
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDW1.24
HomeLLDDD1.33
AwayDDDLW1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%37%22%
AVG goals2.162.042.30
Over 1.5 %64%56%74%
Over 2.5 %36%37%35%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.061.041.09
Conceded1.101.001.22
BTTS46%41%52%
Clean Sheet30%33%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.10
HomeLLDLL1.41
AwayLLLLL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%14%
AVG goals2.262.282.24
Over 1.5 %64%66%62%
Over 2.5 %42%45%38%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.061.280.76
Conceded1.201.001.48
BTTS40%41%38%
Clean Sheet34%41%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2659
69%
2.3
5319+34
2.8
69%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.7
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2657
65%
2.2
6630+36
3.7
92%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.51.2
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2654
62%
2.1
4525+20
2.7
77%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.71.0
-
4Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2648
54%
1.8
4731+16
3.0
88%
54%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4031.81.2
-
5AktobeAktobe2643
50%
1.7
3929+10
2.6
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.51.1
-
6ZhenysZhenys2636
31%
1.4
3730+7
2.6
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2021.41.2
-
7OrdabasyOrdabasy2635
35%
1.3
3728+9
2.5
58%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.1
-
8OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2632
35%
1.2
3545-10
3.1
73%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.31.7
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2627
23%
1.0
2532-7
2.2
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
10ZhetysuZhetysu2624
19%
0.9
2141-20
2.4
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1020.81.6
-
11UlytauUlytau2623
19%
0.9
2041-21
2.3
73%
38%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.6
-
12KaisarKaisar2622
12%
0.8
2442-18
2.5
73%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.6
-
13AtyrauAtyrau2619
15%
0.7
2245-23
2.6
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.81.7
-
14Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2616
15%
0.6
2558-33
3.2
77%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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