The contest between Zhenys and Kaisar is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory stands at 35%, a draw at 27%, and the away side at 39%. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Zhenys, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Kaisar, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability. The recent form narrative is clear: Zhenys are on a three-game winning streak, while Kaisar has just broken a four-game losing run. All figures are presented in percentages, and no other selections are offered.
Results analysis
Zhenys were still riding a three-game winning streak, but Kaisar, fresh from a win after four straight defeats, turned the tables to secure a 0-2 away victory. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, and the predicted outcome matched the actual result. The model’s confidence for the favourite was 39%. Its single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 80.8% probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, yet the match produced fewer goals than expected, yet the total-goals prediction of 2 remained plausible. Overall, the model’s call and its lone selection proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhenys win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.39
2.00
1.18
1.17
1.58
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.11
1.89
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
0.50
4.00
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
26% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.04
2.75
1.08
2.09
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
2.11
1.16
2.50
1.30
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
4.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
0-2 ✓
6.0%
Zhenys goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.7%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.2%
12%
8.7%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.1%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhenys goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Okzhetpes
2.35
Kaisar
2.15
Zhetysu
2.12
Sport Academy Kairat
1.96
Kyran
1.58
Ekibastuz
1.42
Taraz Karatau
1.38
Zhenys
1.35
Yassy Turkistan
1.35
Akademiya Ontustik
1.15
Astana II
1.04
Igilik
0.81
Bulat
0.65
Baykonur
0.27
Zhenys is 0.81 points worse than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 2.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Okzhetpes
3.08
Sport Academy Kairat
2.35
Kaisar
2.31
Zhetysu
2.19
Kyran
2.19
Astana II
1.92
Yassy Turkistan
1.85
Taraz Karatau
1.73
Ekibastuz
1.73
Akademiya Ontustik
1.62
Zhenys
1.54
Bulat
1.38
Igilik
1.04
Baykonur
0.62
Zhenys is 0.77 goals worse than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 2.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Okzhetpes
0.85
Zhetysu
0.88
Kaisar
1.00
Sport Academy Kairat
1.19
Zhenys
1.38
Kyran
1.65
Taraz Karatau
1.81
Ekibastuz
1.81
Yassy Turkistan
2.08
Akademiya Ontustik
2.31
Astana II
2.38
Igilik
2.69
Baykonur
2.73
Bulat
2.77
Zhenys is 0.38 goals worse than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.64
1.00
0.36
0.55
0.91
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.76
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.20
2.33
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.09
0.43
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.55
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.42
1.10
0.40
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
65% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.82
1.00
0.82
0.73
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.94
0.75
1.00
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
41% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.35
0.61
1.58
0.75
1.09
0.45
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.16
0.74
1.40
0.90
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
52% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (23)
€5m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (6)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Okzhetpes
Zhetysu
Sport Academy Kairat
Kyran
Ekibastuz
Taraz Karatau
Yassy Turkistan
Akademiya Ontustik
Astana II
Igilik
Bulat
Baykonur