Zhenys are tipped to win, with a 58% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 16% for a Kaisar victory. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 13% probability. Zhenys, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have been scoring 2.2 goals and conceding 0.8 on average, while Kaisar, away from home, have managed 1.12 goals and allowed 1.62. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%) and Under 4.5 (89.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability and the model’s hit or miss status.
Results analysis
Zhenys extended a two-game winning streak with a 3-2 triumph over Kaisar, confirming the model’s home win pick. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 58% probability and proved correct. The match saw 5 goals, so the model’s selections on the total were mixed: Under 7.5 (99.6%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.9%) hit, Under 4.5 (89.3%) missed, and the 2.5-goal expectation was not met. Kaisar’s away form was poor, with a 1.12 average goal scored and 1.62 conceded, while Zhenys’ home form boasted 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. The model’s other picks also performed well: Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (95.3%) hit, Home +2 handicap (94.8%) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%) hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhenys win✓ Hit
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.37
1.81
1.00
1.79
1.79
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.64
1.17
1.33
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.94
1.22
2.20
0.80
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.12
1.00
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.71
1.00
1.22
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.20
1.29
0.71
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.0%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
11.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
3-0
6.7%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
Zhenys goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
5.5%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.4%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.5%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhenys goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ekibastuz
2.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.20
Yelimay Semey
2.00
Ordabasy
1.60
Turan Turkistan
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Irtysh
1.33
Khan Tengri
1.25
Zhenys
1.25
Kaspiy
1.25
Ansat
1.01
Karshiga Almaty
1.01
BKS
1.01
Chromtau
1.01
Jelaev Nan
1.01
Jaiyq
1.01
FC Astana
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Arys
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Talas Karatau
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Jas Qyran
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Zhenys is 1.25 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SD Family
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.67
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.40
Kaspiy
1.25
FC Astana
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Arys
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Irtysh
1.00
Ansat
0.79
Karshiga Almaty
0.79
BKS
0.79
Chromtau
0.79
Jelaev Nan
0.79
Jaiyq
0.79
Ordabasy
0.60
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.25
Talas Karatau
0.00
Jas Qyran
0.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Taraz
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys is 1.00 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.00
Taraz
0.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.40
Ordabasy
0.40
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Kairat Almaty
0.50
Talas Karatau
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Kaisar
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
Aktobe
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Arys
1.00
SD Family
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Ansat
1.09
Karshiga Almaty
1.09
BKS
1.09
Chromtau
1.09
Jelaev Nan
1.09
Jaiyq
1.09
Kaspiy
1.25
Irtysh
1.67
Atyrau
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ulytau
3.00
Zhenys and Kaisar are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zhenys or Draw✓ Hit
83.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
16%
covers Zhenys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys or Kaisar✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
16%
covers Zhenys + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaisar✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
16%
covers Draw + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zhenys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zhenys, so a minus line means Zhenys give that many goals of a start and Kaisar receive them. At -1, Zhenys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zhenys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zhenys)Actual: Kaisar
Zhenys -2
14.6%
Draw -2
18.2%
Kaisar +2
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zhenys)Actual: Draw
Zhenys -1
32.9%
Draw -1
24.8%
Kaisar +1
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zhenys)Actual: Zhenys
Zhenys +1
83.8%
Draw +1
11.0%
Kaisar -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zhenys)Actual: Zhenys
Zhenys +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.0%
Kaisar -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.88
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.61
1.20
0.40
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.57
0.67
0.22
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
0.94
0.50
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
0.91
0.83
0.67
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.61
1.00
0.40
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.14
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.71
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhenys and Kaisar have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →