Zhenys are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Kyzyl-Zhar win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Zhenys, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while Kyzyl-Zhar, on the road, average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.8%), Home +2 handicap (93.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.9%), and Under 4.5 (88.1%). With Zhenys on a three-game winning run after a 1-0 win over Altay and Kyzyl-Zhar coming off a 0-3 loss to Ordabasy, the home side’s form and defensive solidity give them the edge in this encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zhenys win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.33
2.00
0.94
1.79
1.79
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.67
1.50
1.25
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.95
1.20
2.17
0.83
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kyzyl-Zhar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.92
0.85
0.94
1.29
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.12
0.67
0.78
0.71
1.57
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.07
1.50
1.00
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.3%
Zhenys goals ↓
Kyzyl-Zhar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.3%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.3%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhenys goals (down), columns = Kyzyl-Zhar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Zhenys is 0.15 points better than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Zhenys is 0.15 goals better than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Zhenys is 0.60 goals better than Kyzyl-Zhar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zhenys
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kyzyl-Zhar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhenys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kyzyl-Zhar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zhenys or Draw
78.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
21%
covers Zhenys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys or Kyzyl-Zhar
72.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
21%
covers Zhenys + Kyzyl-Zhar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar
48.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
21%
covers Draw + Kyzyl-Zhar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zhenys over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zhenys, so a minus line means Zhenys give that many goals of a start and Kyzyl-Zhar receive them. At -1, Zhenys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zhenys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zhenys)
Zhenys -2
11.7%
Draw -2
16.1%
Kyzyl-Zhar +2
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zhenys)
Zhenys -1
27.7%
Draw -1
23.5%
Kyzyl-Zhar +1
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zhenys)
Zhenys +1
78.7%
Draw +1
13.5%
Kyzyl-Zhar -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zhenys)
Zhenys +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.7%
Kyzyl-Zhar -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.31
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.55
1.17
0.33
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kyzyl-Zhar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.38
0.54
0.29
0.65
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.62
0.22
0.44
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.75
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.6%
Under 0.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.9%
Under 1.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.00
0.62
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.65
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kyzyl-Zhar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.54
0.31
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.50
0.44
0.33
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.6%
Under 1.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.3%
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Zhenys and Kyzyl-Zhar have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Zhenys and Kyzyl-Zhar have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Zhenys and Kyzyl-Zhar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Zhenys and Kyzyl-Zhar have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu