Zhenys and Yelimay Semey face off in the Kazakhstan: Premier League, with the home side Zhenys coming off a draw against Yelimay Semey, a result that mirrors the actual score of their last meeting. The model predicts a home win for Zhenys, but the probabilities suggest a closely contested match: the home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 31%. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%.
Zhenys has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0 goals and conceding 1 goal against stronger opponents, while Yelimay Semey has averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded when playing away against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.9% and an edge of 10%.
In a shocking turn of events, Yelimay Semey secured a 0-0 draw against Zhenys, extending their recent run of draws. This result marks a surprise, as the home team was expected to dominate. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was wrong.
The model's selection, Home win, had a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection was wrong. The model's selection, a Home win, came up short.
The model's selection, a Home win, was not the only selection to miss the mark. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, also failed to materialize, with a probability of 82.9% and a pre-match edge of 10%.
Zhenys| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.07 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 1.36 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.87 | 1.13 | 2.12 | 0.75 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 1.88 | 1.24 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.29 | 1.64 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 2.25 | 0.81 | 2.14 | 0.86 | 2.33 | 0.78 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Yelimay Semey goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 12% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Zhenys| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (23) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Yelimay Semey| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Zhenys| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.29 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.25 | 0.38 | 1.43 | 0.14 | 1.11 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Zhenys| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.22 | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.22 | +10.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/04/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/07/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/09/23 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/06/23 | A | 3-2 |
Zhenys| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 6-3 | |
| 22/09/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 2-1 |
Yelimay Semey| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 3-6 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/09/25 | A | 3-3 | |
| 23/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/08/25 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ordabasy | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | FC Astana | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Aktobe | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Okzhetpes | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Kaspiy | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Yelimay Semey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Irtysh | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Zhenys | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Kaisar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Atyrau | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 14 | Ulytau | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | - |
| 16 | Altay (Kazakhstan) | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.4 | - |